Preseason Rankings · 2026

The board starts from what is real today: live ADP from actual drafts, per scoring format, with positional ranks and draft ranges. The triangulation columns (Vegas Season Budget, Nova Budget, Divergence, hit probabilities) switch on as each engine passes validation, and never before.

⚠Nova Budget is live, it shipped after beating the ADP market baseline in 2023 and 2024 out-of-sample backtests (hover any value for the record). Divergence is live too, scored from Nova vs the Vegas season-props market (hover any value for coverage). Vegas Budget stays engine pending until the season-props capture completes. No placeholder numbers, ever.

What do these columns mean? (or hover any column header)

Overall board rank by current ADP (where the market is drafting him).

Player

The player. Click his name for the full player page.

Pos

Position: QB, RB, WR, or TE.

Pos Rank

Rank within his position by ADP (for example WR5).

Bye

His bye week, the week his NFL team does not play.

ADP

Average Draft Position: the average overall pick he is drafted at, from real drafts. The market's price.

Pick

ADP shown as round.pick (3.05 = round 3, pick 5).

Range

The earliest and latest picks he has actually gone at: his draft-day range.

Standard deviation of his draft spot. Higher means more disagreement on where he belongs.

Drafts

How many real drafts his ADP is based on. More drafts, more reliable.

DNA ★

Week-to-week volatility grade from 3 seasons of game logs, vs position peers. Steadiest to swingiest: S+ elite consistency, S consistent, B baseline, V variable, H high variance, X extreme boom/bust. Hover a grade for that player's detail.

ECR

Expert Consensus Ranking: the fantasy industry's average expert rank (FantasyPros). This is the consensus, not Nova.

Nova Rk ★

Nova's OWN ranking by VORP (value over replacement). The secret sauce: Nova's opinion, independent of ADP and the experts.

Nova Budget ★

Nova's projected full-season fantasy points, adjusted for how many games we expect the player to play.

Tier-1 % ★

Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.

Playoff SOS ★

Strength of schedule in the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17), from 2025 points allowed to the position. Higher = easier.

Vegas Budget

Coming soon: the season points the Vegas props market implies. Pending the season-props capture.

Divergence ★

Nova's disagreement with the market on a plus/minus 100 scale. Positive = Nova is higher than Vegas and the experts, negative = lower. This is where the edge lives.

★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference (ADP, experts, draft spread) that Nova is measured against.

ADP source: FantasyFootballCalculator ADP (free, real drafts) + Nova projections for the full player universe · 1118 drafts · window 2026-06-30 → 2026-07-07 · generated 2026-07-07 · 12-team leagues · 968 players shown

Tip: sort by to group players into tiers (ADP order scatters them).

#▲	Player	Pos	Pos Rank	Bye	ADP▲	Pick	Range	σ	Drafts	DNA	ECR	Nova Rk	Nova Budget	Tier-1 %	Playoff SOS	Vegas Budget	Divergence
1	Bijan RobinsonATL	RB	RB1	11	1.4	1.01	1–3	0.6	123	B	2	2T1	322	51%	20	engine pending	+4.2
2	Jahmyr GibbsDET	RB	RB2	6	2.0	1.02	1–4	0.8	96	H	2	1T1	328	54%	17.3	engine pending	+1.5
3	Puka NacuaLA	WR	WR1	11	2.6	1.03	1–3	0.7	30	B	4	5T2	308	47%	19	engine pending	+7.9
4	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR	WR2	6	3.8	1.04	1–6	1.2	170	X	3	4T2	312	49%	23.3	engine pending	-0.2
5	Christian McCaffreySF	RB	RB3	8	4.8	1.05	3–7	1.0	68	B	9	8T3	276	43%	10.3	engine pending	-9.2
6	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR	WR3	11	5.8	1.06	3–9	1.3	85	B	5	9T3	279	41%	11.7	engine pending	-9.6
7	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR	WR4	6	7.3	1.07	4–12	1.3	69	B	7	6T2	300	45%	17.3	engine pending	+11.7
8	Jonathan TaylorIND	RB	RB4	13	7.4	1.07	2–12	1.8	104	H	6	12T4	256	39%	22	engine pending	n/a
9	De'Von AchaneMIA	RB	RB5	6	9.3	1.09	3–13	2.1	46	H	20	7T3	283	45%	14.7	engine pending	n/a
10	Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	WR5	6	10.1	1.10	5–16	1.7	84	B	11	23T5	223	27%	23.3	engine pending	-18.3
11	CeeDee LambDAL	WR	WR6	14	10.6	1.11	6–16	1.9	92	B	8	16T4	249	34%	20.7	engine pending	-19.3
12	Ashton JeantyLV	RB	RB6	13	12.4	1.12	6–17	2.4	77	V	16	18T4	240	35%	15.7	engine pending	n/a
13	Drake LondonATL	WR	WR7	11	12.9	2.01	8–17	1.8	29	H	13	24T5	223	27%	18.3	engine pending	-16.3
14	James Cook IIIBUF	RB	RB7	7	14.0	2.02	7–21	2.6	117	B	10	15T4	247	37%	13.7	engine pending	n/a
15	A.J. BrownNE	WR	WR8	11	14.5	2.02	8–20	2.4	44	B	19	33T6	212	24%	12	engine pending	n/a
16	Derrick HenryBAL	RB	RB8	13	15.5	2.03	8–24	2.8	67	V	14	14T4	248	37%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
17	Chase BrownCIN	RB	RB9	6	15.9	2.04	9–21	2.6	96	H	26	32T6	211	28%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
18	Omarion HamptonLAC	RB	RB10	7	16.9	2.05	7–24	3.8	150	ROOKIE/NA	23	98T6	158	15%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
19	George PickensDAL	WR	WR9	14	17.4	2.05	12–22	2.5	59	V	17	20T5	231	27%	20.7	engine pending	+13.2
20	Saquon BarkleyPHI	RB	RB11	10	20.2	2.08	11–29	3.2	179	V	18	19T5	234	32%	12	engine pending	n/a
21	Chris OlaveNO	WR	WR10	8	20.4	2.08	16–25	2.0	31	S	24	39T6	205	22%	18.7	engine pending	-6.7
22	Jeremiyah LoveARI	RB	RB12	14	22.2	2.10	18–26	2.0	45	ROOKIE/NA	41	3T2	314*	46%	22	engine pending	n/a
23	Kenneth Walker IIIKC	RB	RB13	5	22.7	2.11	15–29	2.6	96	B	25	64T6	183	21%	10.7	engine pending	n/a
24	Nico CollinsHOU	WR	WR11	8	23.7	2.12	15–32	3.2	99	B	12	27T5	220	25%	13.3	engine pending	-0.8
25	Zay FlowersBAL	WR	WR12	13	26.2	3.02	21–31	2.1	25	B	35	30T5	216	25%	11.7	engine pending	-2.5
26	Garrett WilsonNYJ	WR	WR13	13	26.9	3.03	20–32	3.1	26	S	49	73T6	177	14%	9.7	engine pending	-18.8
27	Rashee RiceKC	WR	WR14	5	27.1	3.03	17–34	3.8	78	S	27	97T6	162	11%	14.3	engine pending	n/a
28	Trey McBrideARI	TE	TE1	14	27.6	3.04	14–37	5.2	99	V	21	10T3	255	51%	13.7	engine pending	+8.3
29	Tee HigginsCIN	WR	WR15	6	27.8	3.04	20–34	3.4	22	H	28	50T6	195	18%	23.3	engine pending	-0.8
30	Josh AllenBUF	QB	QB1	7	27.8	3.04	11–41	6.2	97	X	22	11T4	357	41%	18	engine pending	n/a
31	Josh JacobsGB	RB	RB14	11	28.8	3.05	22–39	3.3	90	B	34	26T5	214	30%	16.7	engine pending	n/a
32	Breece HallNYJ	RB	RB15	13	29.1	3.05	21–39	3.8	61	H	42	21T5	224	31%	14.7	engine pending	n/a
33	DeVonta SmithPHI	WR	WR16	10	29.1	3.05	23–38	3.4	81	B	36	54T6	192	18%	9.7	engine pending	-15.8
34	Kyren WilliamsLA	RB	RB16	11	32.5	3.08	21–42	4.1	90	S	32	13T4	247	39%	16.3	engine pending	n/a
35	Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR	WR17	5	32.6	3.09	23–41	4.1	67	S	31	35T6	211	23%	11.3	engine pending	+9.3
36	Javonte WilliamsDAL	RB	RB17	14	34.7	3.11	23–43	4.8	75	S	38	51T6	189	24%	14.3	engine pending	n/a
37	Brock BowersLV	TE	TE2	13	35.1	3.11	18–48	6.5	146	V	15	17T4	224	40%	23	engine pending	-2.9
38	Ladd McConkeyLAC	WR	WR18	7	36.6	4.01	24–47	4.8	101	S	46	41T6	201	19%	15.3	engine pending	+15.1
39	Terry McLaurinWAS	WR	WR19	7	36.9	4.01	28–46	3.9	51	S+	45	92T6	163	11%	13.3	engine pending	-19.8
40	Cam SkatteboNYG	RB	RB18	8	37.9	4.02	26–47	4.6	62	ROOKIE/NA	56	114T6	151	13%	17.7	engine pending	n/a
41	Travis Etienne Jr.NO	RB	RB19	8	38.9	4.03	22–50	6.8	65	B	47	44T6	195	25%	22	engine pending	n/a
42	Davante AdamsLA	WR	WR20	11	40.6	4.05	30–51	4.0	52	V	44	36T6	211	23%	19	engine pending	+7.8
43	Jaylen WaddleDEN	WR	WR21	10	42.6	4.07	35–56	4.0	47	S	50	82T6	171	13%	13.3	engine pending	n/a
44	Malik NabersNYG	WR	WR22	8	43.0	4.07	31–52	4.3	137	V	33	78T6	175	13%	22.7	engine pending	n/a
45	Colston LovelandCHI	TE	TE3	10	44.8	4.09	31–58	6.3	64	X	37	45T6	173	24%	9.7	engine pending	+0.7
46	Bucky IrvingTB	RB	RB20	10	45.4	4.09	27–54	6.9	46	S	52	53T6	188	23%	14	engine pending	n/a
47	Luther Burden IIICHI	WR	WR23	10	46.2	4.10	38–64	4.4	54	ROOKIE/NA	51	143T6	136	6%	17	engine pending	n/a
48	Emeka EgbukaTB	WR	WR24	10	46.6	4.11	33–60	5.1	194	H	39	58T6	192	19%	18	engine pending	-3.3
49	Joe BurrowCIN	QB	QB2	6	47.6	4.12	25–61	8.4	67	H	40	147T6	228	14%	15	engine pending	n/a
50	D'Andre SwiftCHI	RB	RB21	10	48.3	4.12	36–66	5.7	38	S	60	46T6	192	24%	16	engine pending	n/a
51	Jameson WilliamsDET	WR	WR25	6	49.6	5.02	37–62	4.5	59	V	43	59T6	188	17%	17.3	engine pending	+5.3
52	Mike EvansSF	WR	WR26	8	50.7	5.03	37–70	6.2	83	B	54	91T6	164	12%	9	engine pending	n/a
53	Quinshon JudkinsCLE	RB	RB22	11	51.0	5.03	39–60	4.3	69	ROOKIE/NA	57	75T6	176	19%	20.3	engine pending	n/a
54	Lamar JacksonBAL	QB	QB3	13	53.0	5.05	22–69	11.8	63	V	30	38T6	300	28%	19.3	engine pending	n/a
55	Rome OdunzeCHI	WR	WR27	10	55.0	5.07	45–71	5.6	74	V	58	115T6	153	10%	17	engine pending	-10.3
56	Tyler WarrenIND	TE	TE4	13	55.0	5.07	37–70	6.7	77	S+	65	34T6	188	29%	22.3	engine pending	-6.3
57	David MontgomeryHOU	RB	RB23	8	56.0	5.08	40–70	6.1	121	S	63	79T6	169	18%	12.3	engine pending	n/a
58	DK MetcalfPIT	WR	WR28	9	57.0	5.09	40–68	6.3	46	S+	74	67T6	180	16%	22.3	engine pending	+5.6
59	TreVeyon HendersonNE	RB	RB24	11	58.7	5.11	43–70	5.9	75	X	61	40T6	199	26%	13	engine pending	n/a
60	Dak PrescottDAL	QB	QB4	14	58.8	5.11	49–69	5.6	38	V	82	116T6	248	17%	18	engine pending	n/a
61	Alec PierceIND	WR	WR29	13	60.1	5.12	48–73	6.7	49	H	69	112T6	155	9%	12.3	engine pending	n/a
62	Christian WatsonGB	WR	WR30	11	60.7	6.01	41–82	7.9	99	V	48	161T6	125	5%	14.7	engine pending	-32.0
63	Bhayshul TutenJAX	RB	RB25	7	61.8	6.02	52–73	5.1	63	ROOKIE/NA	64	219T6	93	4%	21.7	engine pending	n/a
64	Carnell TateTEN	WR	WR31	9	62.6	6.03	51–78	6.2	63	ROOKIE/NA	70	25T5	222*	32%	26.7	engine pending	n/a
65	Jaylen WarrenPIT	RB	RB26	9	65.1	6.05	57–73	4.2	40	S+	72	85T6	163	17%	20.3	engine pending	n/a
66	Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI	WR	WR32	14	65.1	6.05	52–80	6.9	62	B	71	102T6	161	11%	16.7	engine pending	-5.5
67	Drake MayeNE	QB	QB5	11	65.2	6.05	44–77	7.8	52	S	29	37T6	297	29%	17.7	engine pending	n/a
68	DJ MooreBUF	WR	WR33	7	66.3	6.06	49–86	7.5	178	H	62	60T6	188	17%	16.3	engine pending	n/a
69	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE	TE	TE5	11	66.4	6.06	49–87	7.3	32	S+	84	28T5	194	33%	14.3	engine pending	n/a
70	Courtland SuttonDEN	WR	WR34	10	70.2	6.10	52–86	7.2	65	S+	78	57T6	190	18%	13.3	engine pending	+9.3
71	Tucker KraftGB	TE	TE6	11	71.8	6.12	55–87	7.5	42	H	55	108T6	135	13%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
72	Sam LaPortaDET	TE	TE7	6	71.9	6.12	55–87	7.7	28	S	80	62T6	164	21%	9.7	engine pending	+25.1
73	Michael Pittman Jr.PIT	WR	WR35	9	71.9	6.12	54–85	7.2	41	S	112	70T6	180	14%	22.3	engine pending	n/a
74	Rhamondre StevensonNE	RB	RB27	11	72.0	6.12	62–81	4.3	25	H	81	99T6	156	16%	13	engine pending	n/a
75	Tony PollardTEN	RB	RB28	9	72.5	7.01	64–82	5.6	29	S+	75	76T6	171	20%	13	engine pending	n/a
76	Jadarian PriceSEA	RB	RB29	11	73.2	7.01	58–91	7.0	98	ROOKIE/NA	66	106T6	156*	18%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
77	Rico DowdlePIT	RB	RB30	9	74.3	7.02	62–96	7.1	49	H	76	87T6	162	17%	20.3	engine pending	n/a
78	Parker WashingtonJAX	WR	WR36	7	74.7	7.03	57–87	7.2	42	H	91	156T6	137	5%	20	engine pending	n/a
79	Patrick MahomesKC	QB	QB6	5	77.1	7.05	65–97	9.1	28	S+	99	66T6	275	23%	11	engine pending	n/a
80	Justin HerbertLAC	QB	QB7	7	77.4	7.05	50–108	11.1	51	B	68	68T6	274	23%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
81	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	WR	WR37	10	78.3	7.06	58–91	7.6	77	B	94	160T6	127	5%	18	engine pending	n/a
82	Chuba HubbardCAR	RB	RB31	5	78.6	7.07	57–96	8.1	64	V	79	101T6	156	15%	13.7	engine pending	n/a
83	Michael WilsonARI	WR	WR38	14	80.6	7.09	59–99	8.0	75	H	95	89T6	165	11%	16.7	engine pending	n/a
84	Trevor LawrenceJAX	QB	QB8	7	80.6	7.09	66–108	7.0	36	B	73	65T6	273	24%	21.7	engine pending	n/a
85	Jayden ReedGB	WR	WR39	11	84.1	7.12	68–96	9.0	23	B	114	140T6	138	7%	14.7	engine pending	n/a
86	Brian Thomas Jr.JAX	WR	WR40	7	84.3	7.12	63–102	8.1	144	B	77	47T6	198	19%	20	engine pending	+27.1
87	Josh DownsIND	WR	WR41	13	84.7	8.01	66–99	9.1	39	S	127	111T6	156	10%	12.3	engine pending	n/a
88	Jordyn TysonNO	WR	WR42	8	85.5	8.01	63–103	8.4	56	ROOKIE/NA	88	61T6	187*	25%	18.7	engine pending	n/a
89	Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL	TE	TE8	11	86.4	8.02	63–140	14.2	89	X	86	56T6	169	23%	22.7	engine pending	n/a
90	Jayden DanielsWAS	QB	QB9	7	86.6	8.03	68–116	10.9	66	V	53	146T6	235	14%	11	engine pending	n/a
91	RJ HarveyDEN	RB	RB32	10	88.4	8.04	62–115	10.1	82	V	93	49T6	191	25%	17.3	engine pending	n/a
92	Jared GoffDET	QB	QB10	6	90.1	8.06	59–117	16.6	18	B	107	55T6	281	26%	16	engine pending	n/a
93	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	WR	WR43	9	90.2	8.06	69–109	10.3	37	S	119	63T6	186	17%	26.7	engine pending	n/a
94	Travis KelceKC	TE	TE9	5	92.0	8.08	70–119	13.1	21	B	106	48T6	172	24%	16.3	engine pending	n/a
95	Aaron Jones Sr.MIN	RB	RB33	6	92.4	8.08	76–108	9.5	37	S	108	117T6	147	14%	22.3	engine pending	n/a
96	Jalen HurtsPHI	QB	QB11	10	93.1	8.09	63–120	12.2	80	B	59	22T5	313	31%	10	engine pending	n/a
97	Jordan AddisonMIN	WR	WR44	6	94.5	8.11	81–108	7.5	33	V	97	69T6	179	15%	23.3	engine pending	n/a
98	J.K. DobbinsDEN	RB	RB34	10	95.9	8.12	64–115	11.9	63	S+	89	157T6	125	9%	17.3	engine pending	n/a
99	Brock PurdySF	QB	QB12	8	96.3	8.12	77–126	12.0	43	V	92	90T6	249	19%	8.3	engine pending	n/a
100	Xavier WorthyKC	WR	WR45	5	97.3	9.01	79–117	8.3	34	B	117	127T6	146	8%	14.3	engine pending	n/a
101	Seattle DefenseSEA	DEF	DEF1	11	98.2	9.02	70–110	10.8	21	ROOKIE/NA	n/a	n/a	rookie	n/a	n/a	engine pending	n/a
102	Jakobi MeyersJAX	WR	WR46	7	98.5	9.03	80–115	7.3	58	S+	102	77T6	174	13%	20	engine pending	n/a
103	Kenny GainwellTB	RB	RB35	10	98.5	9.03	78–120	11.3	47	ROOKIE/NA	110	n/a	rookie	n/a	14	engine pending	n/a
104	Quentin JohnstonLAC	WR	WR47	7	100.0	9.04	77–120	8.6	69	V	98	93T6	161	11%	15.3	engine pending	n/a
105	Rachaad WhiteWAS	RB	RB36	7	100.8	9.05	71–120	11.2	40	B	109	83T6	163	18%	9.3	engine pending	n/a
106	Denver DefenseDEN	DEF	DEF2	10	100.8	9.05	79–115	10.0	32	ROOKIE/NA	n/a	n/a	rookie	n/a	n/a	engine pending	n/a
107	Matthew StaffordLA	QB	QB13	11	100.9	9.05	76–124	11.9	72	S	101	105T6	254	19%	22.7	engine pending	n/a
108	Romeo DoubsNE	WR	WR48	11	101.1	9.05	84–113	8.4	29	S	132	118T6	154	9%	12	engine pending	n/a
109	George KittleSF	TE	TE10	8	103.0	9.07	50–142	20.0	98	B	105	43T6	176	25%	4.7	engine pending	+17.9
110	Ricky PearsallSF	WR	WR49	8	103.6	9.08	78–117	9.7	70	X	104	199T6	104	2%	9	engine pending	n/a
111	Kyle MonangaiCHI	RB	RB37	10	103.8	9.08	72–125	12.2	72	B	87	131T6	144	12%	16	engine pending	n/a
112	LA Rams DefenseLA	DEF	DEF3	11	104.6	9.09	66–140	14.7	59	ROOKIE/NA	n/a	n/a	rookie	n/a	n/a	engine pending	n/a
113	Khalil ShakirBUF	WR	WR50	7	105.6	9.10	97–114	5.3	14	S	134	110T6	156	10%	16.3	engine pending	n/a
114	Caleb WilliamsCHI	QB	QB14	10	106.3	9.10	69–130	14.3	105	V	67	42T6	296	28%	13.3	engine pending	n/a
115	Houston DefenseHOU	DEF	DEF4	8	107.0	9.11	79–127	10.7	59	ROOKIE/NA	n/a	n/a	rookie	n/a	n/a	engine pending	n/a
116	Makai LemonPHI	WR	WR51	10	107.2	9.11	86–121	8.1	70	ROOKIE/NA	90	135T6	141*	15%	9.7	engine pending	n/a
117	Jalen CokerCAR	WR	WR52	5	110.5	10.02	78–119	12.3	13	B	137	200T6	104	2%	11.3	engine pending	n/a
118	Matthew GoldenGB	WR	WR53	11	113.6	10.06	97–123	6.1	50	ROOKIE/NA	140	275T6	80	1%	14.7	engine pending	n/a
119	Jaxson DartNYG	QB	QB15	8	113.6	10.06	75–138	17.2	67	ROOKIE/NA	83	94T6	260	20%	20.3	engine pending	n/a
120	Jake FergusonDAL	TE	TE11	14	114.8	10.07	74–147	17.9	75	B	123	71T6	153	20%	15.7	engine pending	+10.3

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