Bijan Robinson
RBATL · bye 11DNA BNova projection
322season budget (pts)
19.46
PPR / game
2
Nova rank
T1
tier
165.8
VORP
Market
1.4
ADP · 1.01
1-3
draft range
2
expert ECR
1-5
expert range
-1
Nova vs market rank
-1
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
89
floor (P10)
322
median (budget)
660
ceiling (P90)
51%
P(tier-1 season)
71%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB4-RB28
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.984x position norm · 51 games · 18.8 mean PPR
Market coverage
+4
divergence vs Vegas · 4 stats · directional
Bijan Robinson is Nova's 2nd-ranked player overall (RB, ATL), in Tier 1. Nova projects roughly 322 points this season, about 19.46 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 1, Nova 2).
Nova gives him about a 51% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 89 points (floor) to 660 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 2 | T1 | 165.8 | 51% | RB4-RB28 | 89.3-659.7 |
| Half PPR | 2 | T2 | 148.6 | 51% | RB5-RB28 | 80.2-592.5 |
| Standard | 2 | T2 | 132.6 | 50% | RB5-RB28 | 71.1-525.3 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 2 | T1 | 160.6 | 51% | RB4-RB28 | 89.3-659.7 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 605.6 |
| Receptions | 66.2 |
| Receiving TDs | 3 |
| Rushing Yards | 1310.8 |
| Rushing TDs | 8.2 |
2025 usage profile17 games
78%
snap share
6.1
targets / game
20%
team target share
2%
air yards share
0.311
WOPR (opportunity)
4.6
receptions / game
77%
catch rate
8
yards / target
5.9
air yards / game
16.9
carries / game
62%
team carry share
5.1
yards / carry
66
red-zone opportunities (10 TDs)
+0.7
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+5.8
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
32
broken tackles forced
47.8
rush yards before contact / g
39.2
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
3.4%
drop rate
100
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 3.5 | 47% over | 3 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 574.5 | 50% over | 605.6 | +5.4% |
| Rushing Yards | 1174.5 | 50% over | 1310.8 | +11.6% |
| Rushing TDs | 8.5 | 53% over | 8.2 | -3.5% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ATL vs TB | 12-24-0 rush, 6-100 rec | 24.4 |
| W2 | ATL vs MIN | 22-143-0 rush, 3-25 rec | 19.8 |
| W3 | ATL vs CAR | 13-72-0 rush, 5-39 rec | 16.1 |
| W4 | ATL vs WAS | 17-75-1 rush, 4-106 rec | 28.1 |
| W6 | ATL vs BUF | 19-170-1 rush, 6-68 rec | 35.8 |
| W7 | ATL vs SF | 14-40-0 rush, 6-52 rec | 21.2 |
| W8 | ATL vs MIA | 9-25-0 rush, 3-23 rec | 5.8 |
| W9 | ATL vs NE | 12-46-0 rush, 8-50 rec | 17.6 |
| W10 | ATL vs IND | 17-84-0 rush, 2-4 rec | 10.8 |
| W11 | ATL vs CAR | 23-104-2 rush, 4-39 rec | 30.3 |
| W12 | ATL vs NO | 14-70-0 rush, 2-37 rec | 14.7 |
| W13 | ATL vs NYJ | 23-142-1 rush, 5-51 rec | 30.3 |
| W14 | ATL vs SEA | 20-86-0 rush, 2-8 rec | 9.4 |
| W15 | ATL vs TB | 19-93-1 rush, 8-82 rec | 29.5 |
| W16 | ATL vs ARI | 16-76-0 rush, 7-92 rec | 29.8 |
| W17 | ATL vs LA | 22-195-1 rush, 5-34 rec | 39.9 |
| W18 | ATL vs NO | 15-33-0 rush, 3-10 rec | 7.3 |