DK Metcalf
WRPIT · bye 9DNA S+Nova projection
180season budget (pts)
11.76
PPR / game
67
Nova rank
T6
tier
19.4
VORP
Market
57.0
ADP · 5.09
40-68
draft range
74
expert ECR
48-91
expert range
-9
Nova vs market rank
-9
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
67
floor (P10)
180
median (budget)
308
ceiling (P90)
16%
P(tier-1 season)
32%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR19-WR70
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.836x position norm · 46 games · 13.13 mean PPR
Market coverage
+6
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
DK Metcalf is Nova's 67th-ranked player overall (WR, PIT), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 180 points this season, about 11.76 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 57, Nova 67).
Nova gives him about a 16% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 67 points (floor) to 308 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +6). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 67 | T6 | 19.4 | 16% | WR19-WR70 | 66.7-307.6 |
| Half PPR | 67 | T5 | 17.1 | 17% | WR18-WR69 | 56.1-258.8 |
| Standard | 63 | T7 | 18.1 | 18% | WR17-WR65 | 45.6-210 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 76 | T8 | 17.4 | 16% | WR19-WR70 | 66.7-307.6 |
Nova season stat lines15.3 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 865.5 |
| Receptions | 57.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.6 |
| Rushing Yards | 6 |
2025 usage profile15 games
87%
snap share
6.6
targets / game
22%
team target share
37%
air yards share
0.596
WOPR (opportunity)
3.9
receptions / game
60%
catch rate
8.6
yards / target
69.6
air yards / game
14
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.3
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.1
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
8
broken tackles forced
10
rush yards before contact / g
2
rush yards after contact / g
5
drops
5.2%
drop rate
92
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 48% over | 5.6 | +1.8% |
| Receiving Yards | 824.5 | 50% over | 865.5 | +5% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PIT vs NYJ | 4-83-0 (7 tgt) | 12.3 |
| W2 | PIT vs SEA | 3-20-1 (6 tgt) | 11.0 |
| W3 | PIT vs NE | 3-32-1 (4 tgt) | 12.2 |
| W4 | PIT vs MIN | 5-126-1 (5 tgt) | 23.6 |
| W6 | PIT vs CLE | 4-95-1 (9 tgt) | 19.5 |
| W7 | PIT vs CIN | 3-50-0 (5 tgt) | 8.0 |
| W8 | PIT vs GB | 5-55-1 (7 tgt) | 16.5 |
| W9 | PIT vs IND | 2-6-0 (4 tgt) | 2.6 |
| W10 | PIT vs LAC | 3-35-0 (7 tgt) | 6.5 |
| W11 | PIT vs CIN | 5-49-0 (8 tgt) | 9.9 |
| W12 | PIT vs CHI | 5-22-0 (8 tgt), 2-12 rush | 14.4 |
| W13 | PIT vs BUF | 3-32-0 (5 tgt) | 6.2 |
| W14 | PIT vs BAL | 7-148-0 (12 tgt) | 21.8 |
| W15 | PIT vs MIA | 3-55-1 (3 tgt) | 14.5 |
| W16 | PIT vs DET | 4-42-0 (9 tgt) | 8.2 |