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Nova Budget ★

Nova's projected full-season fantasy points, adjusted for how many games we expect the player to play.

VORP ★

Value Over Replacement Player: projected points above a freely-available replacement at the same position. Nova's core measure of real value.

Tier ★

Nova's value tier at the position. A tier break marks a real cliff in value, so Tier 1 is the top group, Tier 2 the next, and so on.

DNA ★

Week-to-week volatility grade from 3 seasons of game logs, graded against position peers so low scorers are not punished. The scale, steadiest to swingiest: S+ elite consistency, S consistent, B baseline, V variable, H high variance, X extreme boom/bust.

Floor (P10) ★

A low-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish below this. The safe-case number.

Ceiling (P90) ★

A high-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish above this. The upside number.

Tier-1 % ★

Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.

Divergence ★

Nova's disagreement with the market on a plus/minus 100 scale. Positive means Nova is higher than Vegas and the experts, negative means lower. Where the edge lives.

ADP

Average Draft Position: the average overall pick he is drafted at, from real drafts. The market's price on a player.