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Marvin Harrison Jr.

WRARI · bye 14DNA B

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Nova projection
161season budget (pts)
11.23
PPR / game
102
Nova rank
T6
tier
-1.2
VORP
Market
65.1
ADP · 6.05
52-80
draft range
71
expert ECR
51-101
expert range
-36
Nova vs market rank
-36
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
16161floor P10275ceiling P90
61
floor (P10)
161
median (budget)
275
ceiling (P90)
11%
P(tier-1 season)
24%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR25-WR79
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 1.024x position norm · 29 games · 11.18 mean PPR
Market coverage
-6
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nova below marketEarly SOS 18.3Playoff SOS 16.7Bye 14

Marvin Harrison Jr. is Nova's 102nd-ranked player overall (WR, ARI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 161 points this season, about 11.23 per game.

He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 65, ahead of Nova's 102.

Nova gives him about a 11% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 61 points (floor) to 275 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -5). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR102T6-1.211%WR25-WR7960.9-275.1
Half PPR99T6-0.612%WR24-WR7751.1-230.9
Standard80T73.313%WR23-WR7541.3-186.7
2QB / Superflex110T8-3.211%WR25-WR7960.9-275.1

Nova season stat lines14.4 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards747
Receptions51.6
Receiving TDs5.7

2025 usage profile12 games

71%
snap share
6.1
targets / game
18%
team target share
33%
air yards share
0.502
WOPR (opportunity)
3.4
receptions / game
56%
catch rate
8.3
yards / target
78.8
air yards / game
11
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.7
TD pace vs position (4 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

3
broken tackles forced
4
drops
4.6%
drop rate
88.9
passer rating when targeted

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs5.543% over5.7+3.6%
Receiving Yards824.550% over747-9.4%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1ARI vs NO5-71-1 (6 tgt)18.1
W2ARI vs CAR2-27-0 (5 tgt)4.7
W3ARI vs SF3-44-0 (6 tgt)7.4
W4ARI vs SEA6-66-1 (10 tgt)18.6
W5ARI vs TEN4-98-0 (5 tgt)13.8
W6ARI vs IND2-32-0 (2 tgt)5.2
W7ARI vs GB2-58-0 (6 tgt)7.8
W9ARI vs DAL7-96-1 (10 tgt)22.6
W10ARI vs SEA3-33-1 (12 tgt)14.3
W13ARI vs TB6-69-0 (7 tgt)12.9
W16ARI vs ATL1-14-0 (3 tgt)2.4
W17ARI vs CIN0-0-0 (1 tgt)0.0