Marvin Harrison Jr.
WRARI · bye 14DNA BNova projection
161season budget (pts)
11.23
PPR / game
102
Nova rank
T6
tier
-1.2
VORP
Market
65.1
ADP · 6.05
52-80
draft range
71
expert ECR
51-101
expert range
-36
Nova vs market rank
-36
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
61
floor (P10)
161
median (budget)
275
ceiling (P90)
11%
P(tier-1 season)
24%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR25-WR79
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 1.024x position norm · 29 games · 11.18 mean PPR
Market coverage
-6
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Marvin Harrison Jr. is Nova's 102nd-ranked player overall (WR, ARI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 161 points this season, about 11.23 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 65, ahead of Nova's 102.
Nova gives him about a 11% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 61 points (floor) to 275 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -5). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 102 | T6 | -1.2 | 11% | WR25-WR79 | 60.9-275.1 |
| Half PPR | 99 | T6 | -0.6 | 12% | WR24-WR77 | 51.1-230.9 |
| Standard | 80 | T7 | 3.3 | 13% | WR23-WR75 | 41.3-186.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 110 | T8 | -3.2 | 11% | WR25-WR79 | 60.9-275.1 |
Nova season stat lines14.4 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 747 |
| Receptions | 51.6 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.7 |
2025 usage profile12 games
71%
snap share
6.1
targets / game
18%
team target share
33%
air yards share
0.502
WOPR (opportunity)
3.4
receptions / game
56%
catch rate
8.3
yards / target
78.8
air yards / game
11
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.7
TD pace vs position (4 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
4
drops
4.6%
drop rate
88.9
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 43% over | 5.7 | +3.6% |
| Receiving Yards | 824.5 | 50% over | 747 | -9.4% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ARI vs NO | 5-71-1 (6 tgt) | 18.1 |
| W2 | ARI vs CAR | 2-27-0 (5 tgt) | 4.7 |
| W3 | ARI vs SF | 3-44-0 (6 tgt) | 7.4 |
| W4 | ARI vs SEA | 6-66-1 (10 tgt) | 18.6 |
| W5 | ARI vs TEN | 4-98-0 (5 tgt) | 13.8 |
| W6 | ARI vs IND | 2-32-0 (2 tgt) | 5.2 |
| W7 | ARI vs GB | 2-58-0 (6 tgt) | 7.8 |
| W9 | ARI vs DAL | 7-96-1 (10 tgt) | 22.6 |
| W10 | ARI vs SEA | 3-33-1 (12 tgt) | 14.3 |
| W13 | ARI vs TB | 6-69-0 (7 tgt) | 12.9 |
| W16 | ARI vs ATL | 1-14-0 (3 tgt) | 2.4 |
| W17 | ARI vs CIN | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |