Patrick Mahomes
QBKC · bye 5DNA S+Nova projection
275season budget (pts)
18.17
PPR / game
66
Nova rank
T6
tier
22.9
VORP
Market
77.1
ADP · 7.05
65-97
draft range
99
expert ECR
73-118
expert range
+13
Nova vs market rank
+13
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
95
floor (P10)
275
median (budget)
479
ceiling (P90)
23%
P(tier-1 season)
42%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB7-QB30
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.824x position norm · 46 games · 18.45 mean PPR
Patrick Mahomes is Nova's 66th-ranked player overall (QB, KC), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 275 points this season, about 18.17 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 77, Nova 66).
Nova gives him about a 23% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 95 points (floor) to 479 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 66 | T6 | 22.9 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 95.4-479 |
| Half PPR | 59 | T5 | 22.5 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 95.3-478.4 |
| Standard | 59 | T7 | 22.1 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 95.2-477.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 27 | T7 | 71.4 | 23% | QB7-QB30 | 95.4-479 |
Nova season stat lines15.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 366.7 |
| Rushing TDs | 3 |
| Passing Yards | 3701.3 |
| Passing TDs | 23.5 |
2025 usage profile14 games
97%
snap share
4.6
carries / game
18%
team carry share
6.6
yards / carry
15
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+3.2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+7.7
TD pace vs position (27 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
26.2
rush yards before contact / g
3.9
rush yards after contact / g
0
drops
0%
drop rate
79.2
passer rating when targeted
118
times pressured
20.3%
pressure rate faced
79
times blitzed
34
times sacked
27
times hurried
57
times hit
14.5%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC vs LAC | 258-1-0 pass, 6-57-1 rush | 26.0 |
| W2 | KC vs PHI | 187-1-1 pass, 7-66-1 rush | 22.1 |
| W3 | KC vs NYG | 224-1-0 pass, 5-2-0 rush | 13.2 |
| W4 | KC vs BAL | 270-4-0 pass, 4-5-0 rush | 27.3 |
| W5 | KC vs JAX | 318-1-1 pass, 6-60-1 rush | 26.7 |
| W6 | KC vs DET | 257-3-0 pass, 10-32-1 rush | 31.5 |
| W7 | KC vs LV | 286-3-0 pass, 4-28-0 rush | 26.2 |
| W8 | KC vs WAS | 299-3-2 pass, 4-30-0 rush | 23.0 |
| W9 | KC vs BUF | 250-0-1 pass, 1-5-0 rush | 10.5 |
| W11 | KC vs DEN | 276-1-1 pass, 1-3-0 rush | 13.3 |
| W12 | KC vs IND | 352-0-1 pass, 4-30-0 rush | 17.1 |
| W13 | KC vs DAL | 261-4-0 pass, 3-30-0 rush | 29.4 |
| W14 | KC vs HOU | 160-0-3 pass, 7-59-0 rush | 6.3 |
| W15 | KC vs LAC | 189-0-1 pass, 2-15-1 rush | 13.1 |