Amon-Ra St. Brown
WRDET · bye 6DNA BNova projection
300season budget (pts)
18.29
PPR / game
6
Nova rank
T2
tier
139.4
VORP
Market
7.3
ADP · 1.07
4-12
draft range
7
expert ECR
6-11
expert range
+1
Nova vs market rank
+1
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
118
floor (P10)
300
median (budget)
519
ceiling (P90)
45%
P(tier-1 season)
67%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR5-WR33
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.927x position norm · 50 games · 19.42 mean PPR
Market coverage
+12
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Amon-Ra St. Brown is Nova's 6th-ranked player overall (WR, DET), in Tier 2. Nova projects roughly 300 points this season, about 18.29 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 7, Nova 6).
Nova gives him about a 45% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 118 points (floor) to 519 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +12). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 6 | T2 | 139.4 | 45% | WR5-WR33 | 117.5-518.6 |
| Half PPR | 6 | T4 | 111.6 | 45% | WR5-WR33 | 96.4-425.2 |
| Standard | 13 | T4 | 87 | 44% | WR6-WR33 | 75.2-331.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 7 | T2 | 137.3 | 45% | WR5-WR33 | 117.5-518.6 |
Nova season stat lines16.4 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1285.3 |
| Receptions | 108.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 10.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 10.8 |
| Passing Yards | 1.9 |
2025 usage profile17 games
85%
snap share
10.1
targets / game
32%
team target share
39%
air yards share
0.746
WOPR (opportunity)
6.9
receptions / game
68%
catch rate
8.1
yards / target
81.8
air yards / game
36
red-zone opportunities (10 TDs)
+2.9
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+7.7
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
4
broken tackles forced
1.5
rush yards before contact / g
3
rush yards after contact / g
10
drops
5.5%
drop rate
93.5
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 9.5 | 51% over | 10.3 | +8.4% |
| Receiving Yards | 1249.5 | 50% over | 1285.3 | +2.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DET vs GB | 4-45-0 (6 tgt) | 8.5 |
| W2 | DET vs CHI | 9-115-3 (11 tgt), 2-7 rush | 39.2 |
| W3 | DET vs BAL | 7-77-1 (8 tgt) | 20.7 |
| W4 | DET vs CLE | 7-70-2 (7 tgt) | 26.0 |
| W5 | DET vs CIN | 8-100-0 (9 tgt) | 18.0 |
| W6 | DET vs KC | 9-45-0 (10 tgt), 1-2 rush | 13.7 |
| W7 | DET vs TB | 6-86-1 (10 tgt) | 20.6 |
| W9 | DET vs MIN | 9-97-0 (13 tgt) | 18.7 |
| W10 | DET vs WAS | 5-58-1 (8 tgt) | 16.8 |
| W11 | DET vs PHI | 2-42-0 (12 tgt) | 6.2 |
| W12 | DET vs NYG | 9-149-1 (13 tgt) | 29.9 |
| W13 | DET vs GB | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W14 | DET vs DAL | 6-92-0 (9 tgt) | 15.2 |
| W15 | DET vs LA | 13-164-2 (18 tgt) | 41.4 |
| W16 | DET vs PIT | 4-54-0 (9 tgt) | 9.4 |
| W17 | DET vs MIN | 8-68-0 (13 tgt) | 14.8 |
| W18 | DET vs CHI | 11-139-0 (15 tgt) | 24.9 |