Caleb Williams
QBCHI · bye 10DNA VNova projection
296season budget (pts)
17.91
PPR / game
42
Nova rank
T6
tier
37.8
VORP
Market
106.3
ADP · 9.10
69-130
draft range
67
expert ECR
29-103
expert range
+72
Nova vs market rank
+72
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
103
floor (P10)
296
median (budget)
522
ceiling (P90)
28%
P(tier-1 season)
47%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB6-QB27
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.035x position norm · 34 games · 16.84 mean PPR
Caleb Williams is Nova's 42nd-ranked player overall (QB, CHI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 296 points this season, about 17.91 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 106, well behind Nova's 42, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 28% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 103 points (floor) to 522 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 42 | T6 | 37.8 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 103.3-522.4 |
| Half PPR | 39 | T5 | 37.2 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 103.1-521.4 |
| Standard | 32 | T7 | 36.6 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 102.9-520.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 19 | T5 | 86.2 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 103.3-522.4 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 13.2 |
| Receptions | 1.2 |
| Rushing Yards | 420.8 |
| Rushing TDs | 2 |
| Passing Yards | 3834.7 |
| Passing TDs | 24.6 |
2025 usage profile17 games
99%
snap share
4.5
carries / game
16%
team carry share
5
yards / carry
21
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+7.6
TD pace vs position (31 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
5
broken tackles forced
19.1
rush yards before contact / g
3.5
rush yards after contact / g
0
drops
0%
drop rate
152.1
passer rating when targeted
151
times pressured
24.2%
pressure rate faced
164
times blitzed
24
times sacked
90
times hurried
37
times hit
19.1%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CHI vs MIN | 210-1-0 pass, 6-58-1 rush | 24.2 |
| W2 | CHI vs DET | 207-2-1 pass, 5-27-0 rush | 17.0 |
| W3 | CHI vs DAL | 298-4-0 pass, 5-12-0 rush | 29.1 |
| W4 | CHI vs LV | 212-1-1 pass, 8-13-0 rush | 11.8 |
| W6 | CHI vs WAS | 252-1-0 pass, 4--2-1 rush | 19.9 |
| W7 | CHI vs NO | 172-0-1 pass, 4--2-0 rush | 4.7 |
| W8 | CHI vs BAL | 285-0-1 pass, 3-24-0 rush | 11.8 |
| W9 | CHI vs CIN | 280-3-0 pass, 5-53-0 rush | 38.7 |
| W10 | CHI vs NYG | 220-1-0 pass, 8-63-1 rush | 25.1 |
| W11 | CHI vs MIN | 193-0-0 pass, 4-26-0 rush | 10.3 |
| W12 | CHI vs PIT | 239-3-0 pass, 4-21-0 rush | 21.7 |
| W13 | CHI vs PHI | 154-1-1 pass, 5-13-0 rush | 9.5 |
| W14 | CHI vs GB | 186-2-1 pass, 4-15-0 rush | 14.9 |
| W15 | CHI vs CLE | 242-2-0 pass, 3-13-0 rush | 19.0 |
| W16 | CHI vs GB | 250-2-0 pass, 3-30-0 rush | 21.0 |
| W17 | CHI vs SF | 330-2-0 pass, 5-18-0 rush | 23.0 |
| W18 | CHI vs DET | 212-2-1 pass, 1-1-0 rush | 16.6 |