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Research · Historical Signal Library

Six seasons (2020-2025) of situational effects, measured the honest way: every player-week against that player’s own season baseline, so bad players on Thursdays don’t masquerade as a Thursday effect. Sample sizes and confidence tiers on every row. THIN means directional, not actionable.

⚠These are raw historical splits, and Vegas already prices part of each one. A -10% wind effect does not mean fade every windy game by 10%. The prop line already moved some of that distance. The version that isolates only what the market has NOT already priced (the only part that is actually actionable) publishes once prop history accumulates. That distinction is the difference between our model and double-counting.
What do these terms mean?
Signal
A historical situational effect (for example wind, dome, big favorite) measured across six seasons.
n (sample)
How many player-games the signal is measured over. Bigger is more trustworthy.
Strong / Moderate / Thin
Confidence in a signal by sample size: Strong is well-supported, Thin is suggestive only.
Within-player method
Each signal compares a player to his OWN baseline, so it is not biased by which players happen to land in a situation.
Residual
The part of an outcome the market did not already price in. Nova avoids double-counting effects Vegas has already baked into a line.
seasons 2020-2025 · method: each player-week vs that player’s own season average (no composition bias) · % of position average game · 72 signals shown
PosSituationEffect%PPR ptsn (player-weeks)Confidence
TEPost-bye (13+ days rest)
-11.2%-1200MODERATE
QBWind 15+ mph (outdoor)
-11.2%-1.77214MODERATE
TEShort week (≤5 days rest)
+11%+0.98220MODERATE
TEWind 15+ mph (outdoor)
-10.5%-0.94221MODERATE
WRWind 15+ mph (outdoor)
-10%-1.07591STRONG
RBFreezing (≤32°F outdoor)
+7.6%+0.85195MODERATE
TEBig underdog (+6.5 or more)
-6.3%-0.56491STRONG
RBWest-coast team, 1pm ET (10am body clock)
-5.8%-0.65215MODERATE
WRPost-bye (13+ days rest)
-5.6%-0.6529STRONG
RBBig favorite (-6.5 or more)
+5.5%+0.62970STRONG
TEPrimetime (MNF/TNF/SNF)
+5.4%+0.48709STRONG
WRFreezing (≤32°F outdoor)
-4.8%-0.51285MODERATE
TELarge eastward trip (2+ tz zones)
-4.5%-0.4213MODERATE
QBShort week (≤5 days rest)
+4.3%+0.68200MODERATE
WRDome game
+4%+0.422,832STRONG
WRIndoor (dome/closed roof)
+4%+0.422,832STRONG
QBDome game
+3.9%+0.61953STRONG
QBIndoor (dome/closed roof)
+3.9%+0.61953STRONG
RBBig underdog (+6.5 or more)
-3.8%-0.42857STRONG
QBFreezing (≤32°F outdoor)
-3.8%-0.6100THIN
RBShort week (≤5 days rest)
+3.7%+0.41354MODERATE
WRShort week (≤5 days rest)
+3.7%+0.4559STRONG
QBHome game
+3.4%+0.551,470STRONG
WRLow game total (≤41.5)
-3.3%-0.361,821STRONG
QBHigh game total (47.5+)
+3.2%+0.511,002STRONG
TEBig favorite (-6.5 or more)
+3.1%+0.28569STRONG
WRPrimetime (MNF/TNF/SNF)
-3.1%-0.331,879STRONG
QBBig underdog (+6.5 or more)
-2.8%-0.44431STRONG
QBLow game total (≤41.5)
-2.7%-0.42598STRONG
TEWest-coast team, 1pm ET (10am body clock)
-2.7%-0.24147THIN
TELow game total (≤41.5)
-2.6%-0.23751STRONG
RBWind 15+ mph (outdoor)
-2.6%-0.3382MODERATE
QBDivisional matchup
-2.5%-0.41,029STRONG
QBPost-bye (13+ days rest)
-2.5%-0.39185MODERATE
TEArtificial turf
+2.5%+0.231,419STRONG
WRNatural grass
-2.2%-0.244,443STRONG
RBHome game
+2.2%+0.252,695STRONG
QBArtificial turf
+2.2%+0.361,290STRONG
WRWest-coast team, 1pm ET (10am body clock)
+2.2%+0.24394MODERATE
WRArtificial turf
+2.1%+0.233,814STRONG
TEDivisional matchup
-2%-0.181,139STRONG
WROutdoor (open air)
-2%-0.215,651STRONG
QBOutdoor (open air)
-1.9%-0.291,986STRONG
WRHigh game total (47.5+)
+1.8%+0.192,848STRONG
QBPrimetime (MNF/TNF/SNF)
-1.7%-0.27656STRONG
QBLarge eastward trip (2+ tz zones)
+1.6%+0.25191MODERATE
WRHome game
+1.6%+0.174,248STRONG
QBNatural grass
-1.5%-0.241,564STRONG
TEHigh game total (47.5+)
+1.5%+0.131,070STRONG
RBArtificial turf
+1.5%+0.172,385STRONG
RBPost-bye (13+ days rest)
+1.4%+0.16330MODERATE
TENatural grass
-1.3%-0.111,739STRONG
WRBig underdog (+6.5 or more)
-1.2%-0.131,371STRONG
TEFreezing (≤32°F outdoor)
-1.2%-0.11121THIN
RBDome game
+1.1%+0.131,715STRONG
RBIndoor (dome/closed roof)
+1.1%+0.131,715STRONG
RBNatural grass
-1%-0.122,851STRONG
RBLow game total (≤41.5)
+1%+0.111,214STRONG
RBHigh game total (47.5+)
+0.7%+0.081,767STRONG
WRBig favorite (-6.5 or more)
+0.6%+0.071,480STRONG
RBLarge eastward trip (2+ tz zones)
+0.6%+0.07374MODERATE
RBPrimetime (MNF/TNF/SNF)
-0.6%-0.071,172STRONG
WRDivisional matchup
-0.5%-0.053,008STRONG
TEDome game
+0.5%+0.041,067STRONG
TEHome game
+0.5%+0.051,628STRONG
TEIndoor (dome/closed roof)
+0.5%+0.041,067STRONG
RBOutdoor (open air)
-0.5%-0.063,663STRONG
QBBig favorite (-6.5 or more)
+0.4%+0.07534STRONG
RBDivisional matchup
-0.4%-0.051,909STRONG
WRLarge eastward trip (2+ tz zones)
+0.4%+0.05577STRONG
TEOutdoor (open air)
-0.2%-0.022,180STRONG
QBWest-coast team, 1pm ET (10am body clock)
-0.2%-0.02136THIN