Garrett Wilson
WRNYJ · bye 13DNA SNova projection
177season budget (pts)
13.54
PPR / game
73
Nova rank
T6
tier
15.9
VORP
Market
26.9
ADP · 3.03
20-32
draft range
49
expert ECR
24-65
expert range
-47
Nova vs market rank
-47
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
66
floor (P10)
177
median (budget)
305
ceiling (P90)
14%
P(tier-1 season)
29%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR21-WR73
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.845x position norm · 41 games · 13.77 mean PPR
Market coverage
-19
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Garrett Wilson is Nova's 73rd-ranked player overall (WR, NYJ), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 177 points this season, about 13.54 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 27, ahead of Nova's 73.
Nova gives him about a 14% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 66 points (floor) to 305 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -19). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 73 | T6 | 15.9 | 14% | WR21-WR73 | 65.9-305.3 |
| Half PPR | 73 | T6 | 7.1 | 14% | WR22-WR75 | 52.8-244.8 |
| Standard | 87 | T7 | 1.6 | 12% | WR24-WR78 | 39.8-184.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 82 | T8 | 13.9 | 14% | WR21-WR73 | 65.9-305.3 |
Nova season stat lines13 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 776.1 |
| Receptions | 70.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 2.3 |
2025 usage profile7 games
87%
snap share
8.4
targets / game
35%
team target share
56%
air yards share
0.925
WOPR (opportunity)
5.1
receptions / game
61%
catch rate
6.7
yards / target
76.4
air yards / game
5
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+2.6
TD pace vs position (4 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
3
drops
5%
drop rate
87.4
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 52% over | 4.9 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 999.5 | 50% over | 776.1 | -22.4% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NYJ vs PIT | 7-95-1 (9 tgt) | 22.5 |
| W2 | NYJ vs BUF | 4-50-0 (8 tgt) | 9.0 |
| W3 | NYJ vs TB | 10-84-1 (13 tgt) | 24.4 |
| W4 | NYJ vs MIA | 6-82-1 (8 tgt) | 20.2 |
| W5 | NYJ vs DAL | 6-71-1 (10 tgt) | 19.1 |
| W6 | NYJ vs DEN | 3-13-0 (8 tgt) | 4.3 |
| W10 | NYJ vs CLE | 0-0-0 (3 tgt) | 0.0 |