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Matthew Stafford

QBLA · bye 11DNA S

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Nova projection
254season budget (pts)
15.8
PPR / game
105
Nova rank
T6
tier
-2.1
VORP
Market
100.9
ADP · 9.05
76-124
draft range
101
expert ECR
62-128
expert range
+2
Nova vs market rank
+2
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
25495floor P10449ceiling P90
95
floor (P10)
254
median (budget)
449
ceiling (P90)
19%
P(tier-1 season)
38%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB8-QB31
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.89x position norm · 48 games · 16.83 mean PPR
Early SOS 14.5Playoff SOS 22.7 (soft)Bye 11

Matthew Stafford is Nova's 105th-ranked player overall (QB, LA), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 254 points this season, about 15.8 per game.

Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 101, Nova 105).

Nova gives him about a 19% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 95 points (floor) to 449 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR105T6-2.119%QB8-QB3194.8-448.6
Half PPR103T6-2.119%QB8-QB3194.8-448.6
Standard104T7-2.119%QB8-QB3194.8-448.6
2QB / Superflex47T846.419%QB8-QB3194.8-448.6

Nova season stat lines16.1 expected games

StatNova projection
Rushing Yards32.9
Passing Yards3755.9
Passing TDs29.5

2025 usage profile17 games

99%
snap share
1.7
carries / game
6%
team carry share
0
yards / carry
7
red-zone opportunities (0 TDs)
-0.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
+22.6
TD pace vs position (46 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

0
broken tackles forced
-0.1
rush yards before contact / g
0.2
rush yards after contact / g
117
times pressured
18.8%
pressure rate faced
159
times blitzed
23
times sacked
42
times hurried
52
times hit
18.1%
bad throw rate

No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1LA vs HOU245-1-0 pass, 4--2-0 rush13.6
W2LA vs TEN298-2-1 pass, 2--6-0 rush17.3
W3LA vs PHI196-2-1 pass13.8
W4LA vs IND375-3-0 pass, 4-4-0 rush27.4
W5LA vs SF389-3-0 pass25.6
W6LA vs BAL181-1-0 pass, 4-1-0 rush9.3
W7LA vs JAX182-5-0 pass, 2-1-0 rush27.4
W9LA vs NO281-4-0 pass, 4--4-0 rush26.8
W10LA vs SF280-4-0 pass, 3--3-0 rush26.9
W11LA vs SEA130-2-0 pass13.2
W12LA vs TB273-3-0 pass22.9
W13LA vs CAR243-2-2 pass, 1--1-0 rush11.6
W14LA vs ARI281-3-0 pass23.2
W15LA vs DET368-2-1 pass, 1-2-0 rush20.9
W16LA vs SEA457-3-0 pass, 2-6-0 rush30.9
W17LA vs ATL269-2-3 pass12.8
W18LA vs ARI259-4-0 pass, 1-3-0 rush26.7