Matthew Stafford
QBLA · bye 11DNA SNova projection
254season budget (pts)
15.8
PPR / game
105
Nova rank
T6
tier
-2.1
VORP
Market
100.9
ADP · 9.05
76-124
draft range
101
expert ECR
62-128
expert range
+2
Nova vs market rank
+2
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
95
floor (P10)
254
median (budget)
449
ceiling (P90)
19%
P(tier-1 season)
38%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB8-QB31
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.89x position norm · 48 games · 16.83 mean PPR
Matthew Stafford is Nova's 105th-ranked player overall (QB, LA), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 254 points this season, about 15.8 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 101, Nova 105).
Nova gives him about a 19% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 95 points (floor) to 449 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 105 | T6 | -2.1 | 19% | QB8-QB31 | 94.8-448.6 |
| Half PPR | 103 | T6 | -2.1 | 19% | QB8-QB31 | 94.8-448.6 |
| Standard | 104 | T7 | -2.1 | 19% | QB8-QB31 | 94.8-448.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 47 | T8 | 46.4 | 19% | QB8-QB31 | 94.8-448.6 |
Nova season stat lines16.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 32.9 |
| Passing Yards | 3755.9 |
| Passing TDs | 29.5 |
2025 usage profile17 games
99%
snap share
1.7
carries / game
6%
team carry share
0
yards / carry
7
red-zone opportunities (0 TDs)
-0.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
+22.6
TD pace vs position (46 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
-0.1
rush yards before contact / g
0.2
rush yards after contact / g
117
times pressured
18.8%
pressure rate faced
159
times blitzed
23
times sacked
42
times hurried
52
times hit
18.1%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LA vs HOU | 245-1-0 pass, 4--2-0 rush | 13.6 |
| W2 | LA vs TEN | 298-2-1 pass, 2--6-0 rush | 17.3 |
| W3 | LA vs PHI | 196-2-1 pass | 13.8 |
| W4 | LA vs IND | 375-3-0 pass, 4-4-0 rush | 27.4 |
| W5 | LA vs SF | 389-3-0 pass | 25.6 |
| W6 | LA vs BAL | 181-1-0 pass, 4-1-0 rush | 9.3 |
| W7 | LA vs JAX | 182-5-0 pass, 2-1-0 rush | 27.4 |
| W9 | LA vs NO | 281-4-0 pass, 4--4-0 rush | 26.8 |
| W10 | LA vs SF | 280-4-0 pass, 3--3-0 rush | 26.9 |
| W11 | LA vs SEA | 130-2-0 pass | 13.2 |
| W12 | LA vs TB | 273-3-0 pass | 22.9 |
| W13 | LA vs CAR | 243-2-2 pass, 1--1-0 rush | 11.6 |
| W14 | LA vs ARI | 281-3-0 pass | 23.2 |
| W15 | LA vs DET | 368-2-1 pass, 1-2-0 rush | 20.9 |
| W16 | LA vs SEA | 457-3-0 pass, 2-6-0 rush | 30.9 |
| W17 | LA vs ATL | 269-2-3 pass | 12.8 |
| W18 | LA vs ARI | 259-4-0 pass, 1-3-0 rush | 26.7 |