Alec Pierce
WRIND · bye 13DNA HNova projection
155season budget (pts)
9.92
PPR / game
112
Nova rank
T6
tier
-7
VORP
Market
60.1
ADP · 5.12
48-73
draft range
69
expert ECR
44-89
expert range
-51
Nova vs market rank
-51
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
58
floor (P10)
155
median (budget)
260
ceiling (P90)
9%
P(tier-1 season)
22%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR27-WR81
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.136x position norm · 48 games · 9.17 mean PPR
Alec Pierce is Nova's 112th-ranked player overall (WR, IND), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 155 points this season, about 9.92 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 60, ahead of Nova's 112.
Nova gives him about a 9% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 58 points (floor) to 260 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 112 | T6 | -7 | 9% | WR27-WR81 | 58.4-259.9 |
| Half PPR | 100 | T6 | -0.7 | 11% | WR24-WR77 | 50.8-225.9 |
| Standard | 72 | T7 | 8.7 | 14% | WR21-WR70 | 43.2-191.9 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 123 | T8 | -9 | 9% | WR27-WR81 | 58.4-259.9 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 825.1 |
| Receptions | 40.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.3 |
2025 usage profile15 games
86%
snap share
5.6
targets / game
18%
team target share
41%
air yards share
0.548
WOPR (opportunity)
3.1
receptions / game
56%
catch rate
11.9
yards / target
106.2
air yards / game
9
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+2.2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.1
TD pace vs position (6 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
1
broken tackles forced
1
drops
1%
drop rate
102.4
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND vs MIA | 1-36-0 (3 tgt) | 4.6 |
| W2 | IND vs DEN | 4-68-0 (5 tgt) | 10.8 |
| W3 | IND vs TEN | 4-67-0 (5 tgt) | 10.7 |
| W6 | IND vs ARI | 2-48-0 (4 tgt) | 6.8 |
| W7 | IND vs LAC | 5-98-0 (10 tgt) | 14.8 |
| W8 | IND vs TEN | 2-69-0 (5 tgt) | 8.9 |
| W9 | IND vs PIT | 6-115-0 (13 tgt) | 17.5 |
| W10 | IND vs ATL | 4-84-1 (7 tgt) | 18.4 |
| W12 | IND vs KC | 1-26-0 (2 tgt) | 3.6 |
| W13 | IND vs HOU | 4-78-1 (5 tgt) | 17.8 |
| W14 | IND vs JAX | 5-80-0 (8 tgt) | 13.0 |
| W15 | IND vs SEA | 1-16-0 (1 tgt) | 2.6 |
| W16 | IND vs SF | 4-86-2 (4 tgt) | 24.6 |
| W17 | IND vs JAX | 0-0-0 (5 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W18 | IND vs HOU | 4-132-2 (7 tgt) | 29.2 |