George Kittle
TESF · bye 8DNA BNova projection
176season budget (pts)
12.66
PPR / game
43
Nova rank
T6
tier
37.5
VORP
Market
103.0
ADP · 9.07
50-142
draft range
105
expert ECR
56-202
expert range
+66
Nova vs market rank
+66
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
66
floor (P10)
176
median (budget)
287
ceiling (P90)
25%
P(tier-1 season)
44%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE7-TE26
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.977x position norm · 42 games · 14.32 mean PPR
Market coverage
+18
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
George Kittle is Nova's 43rd-ranked player overall (TE, SF), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 176 points this season, about 12.66 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 103, well behind Nova's 43, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 25% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 66 points (floor) to 287 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +18). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 43 | T6 | 37.5 | 25% | TE7-TE26 | 65.6-286.5 |
| Half PPR | 43 | T5 | 32.5 | 26% | TE6-TE25 | 54.5-238 |
| Standard | 45 | T7 | 28.6 | 30% | TE5-TE23 | 43.4-189.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 51 | T8 | 37.5 | 25% | TE7-TE26 | 65.6-286.5 |
Nova season stat lines13.9 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 775.5 |
| Receptions | 59.6 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 |
2025 usage profile11 games
81%
snap share
6.3
targets / game
22%
team target share
19%
air yards share
0.451
WOPR (opportunity)
5.2
receptions / game
83%
catch rate
9.1
yards / target
41.8
air yards / game
14
red-zone opportunities (6 TDs)
+3.3
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+5
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
-3
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
0.9%
drop rate
117.7
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 54% over | 6.5 | +18.2% |
| Receiving Yards | 724.5 | 50% over | 775.5 | +7% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | SF vs SEA | 4-25-1 (4 tgt) | 12.5 |
| W7 | SF vs ATL | 0-0-0 (2 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W8 | SF vs HOU | 4-43-1 (5 tgt) | 14.3 |
| W9 | SF vs NYG | 4-32-0 (4 tgt), 1--3 rush | 6.9 |
| W10 | SF vs LA | 9-84-1 (9 tgt) | 23.4 |
| W11 | SF vs ARI | 6-67-2 (6 tgt) | 24.7 |
| W12 | SF vs CAR | 6-78-0 (10 tgt) | 13.8 |
| W13 | SF vs CLE | 4-67-0 (5 tgt) | 10.7 |
| W15 | SF vs TEN | 8-88-1 (9 tgt) | 22.8 |
| W16 | SF vs IND | 7-115-1 (8 tgt) | 24.5 |
| W18 | SF vs SEA | 5-29-0 (7 tgt) | 7.9 |