Tony Pollard
RBTEN · bye 9DNA S+Nova projection
171season budget (pts)
10.49
PPR / game
76
Nova rank
T6
tier
14.8
VORP
Market
72.5
ADP · 7.01
64-82
draft range
75
expert ECR
60-119
expert range
-1
Nova vs market rank
-1
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
49
floor (P10)
171
median (budget)
357
ceiling (P90)
20%
P(tier-1 season)
41%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB15-RB51
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.78x position norm · 50 games · 12.18 mean PPR
Tony Pollard is Nova's 76th-ranked player overall (RB, TEN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 171 points this season, about 10.49 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 73, Nova 76).
Nova gives him about a 20% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 49 points (floor) to 357 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 76 | T6 | 14.8 | 20% | RB15-RB51 | 48.6-356.5 |
| Half PPR | 71 | T5 | 13.4 | 19% | RB15-RB51 | 43.8-321.1 |
| Standard | 70 | T7 | 13.2 | 19% | RB16-RB51 | 39-285.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 88 | T8 | 9.6 | 20% | RB15-RB51 | 48.6-356.5 |
Nova season stat lines16.3 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 206.7 |
| Receptions | 34.5 |
| Rushing Yards | 918.4 |
| Rushing TDs | 4.5 |
2025 usage profile17 games
63%
snap share
2.4
targets / game
8%
team target share
0%
air yards share
0.114
WOPR (opportunity)
1.9
receptions / game
81%
catch rate
5
yards / target
0.7
air yards / game
14.2
carries / game
64%
team carry share
4.5
yards / carry
20
red-zone opportunities (3 TDs)
+0.5
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
-0.2
TD pace vs position (5 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
18
broken tackles forced
37.6
rush yards before contact / g
26
rush yards after contact / g
2
drops
10%
drop rate
74.8
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | TEN vs DEN | 18-60-0 rush, 1-29 rec | 7.9 |
| W2 | TEN vs LA | 20-92-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 9.2 |
| W3 | TEN vs IND | 16-45-1 rush, 2-14 rec | 13.9 |
| W4 | TEN vs HOU | 14-64-0 rush, 3-12 rec | 10.6 |
| W5 | TEN vs ARI | 14-67-1 rush, 3-11 rec | 14.8 |
| W6 | TEN vs LV | 10-34-0 rush, 2-13 rec | 6.7 |
| W7 | TEN vs NE | 6-18-0 rush, 6-43 rec | 12.1 |
| W8 | TEN vs IND | 11-44-0 rush, 1-9 rec | 6.3 |
| W9 | TEN vs LAC | 10-56-0 rush, 1-12 rec | 7.8 |
| W11 | TEN vs HOU | 10-22-0 rush, 3-4 rec | 5.6 |
| W12 | TEN vs SEA | 11-20-0 rush, 4-21 rec | 8.1 |
| W13 | TEN vs JAX | 10-60-0 rush, 1-3 rec | 5.3 |
| W14 | TEN vs CLE | 25-161-2 rush | 28.1 |
| W15 | TEN vs SF | 14-104-1 rush, 1-8 rec | 18.2 |
| W16 | TEN vs KC | 21-102-0 rush | 10.2 |
| W17 | TEN vs NO | 18-85-0 rush, 2-10 rec | 11.5 |
| W18 | TEN vs JAX | 14-48-0 rush, 3-17 rec | 9.5 |