George Pickens
WRDAL · bye 14DNA VNova projection
231season budget (pts)
14.52
PPR / game
20
Nova rank
T5
tier
68.6
VORP
Market
17.4
ADP · 2.05
12-22
draft range
17
expert ECR
10-31
expert range
-1
Nova vs market rank
-1
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
87
floor (P10)
231
median (budget)
390
ceiling (P90)
27%
P(tier-1 season)
48%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR11-WR52
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.067x position norm · 48 games · 13.86 mean PPR
Market coverage
+13
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
George Pickens is Nova's 20th-ranked player overall (WR, DAL), in Tier 5. Nova projects roughly 231 points this season, about 14.52 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 17, Nova 20).
Nova gives him about a 27% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 87 points (floor) to 390 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +13). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 20 | T5 | 68.6 | 27% | WR11-WR52 | 86.5-389.5 |
| Half PPR | 23 | T5 | 57.5 | 28% | WR11-WR50 | 72.4-326 |
| Standard | 24 | T6 | 49.7 | 30% | WR10-WR48 | 58.3-262.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 30 | T7 | 66.6 | 27% | WR11-WR52 | 86.5-389.5 |
Nova season stat lines15.9 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1178.7 |
| Receptions | 75.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.2 |
| Rushing Yards | 2.4 |
2025 usage profile17 games
81%
snap share
8.1
targets / game
23%
team target share
32%
air yards share
0.563
WOPR (opportunity)
5.5
receptions / game
68%
catch rate
10.4
yards / target
91
air yards / game
24
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
-0.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
+5.7
TD pace vs position (9 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
6
broken tackles forced
3
drops
1.8%
drop rate
105
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 54% over | 6.2 | -4.6% |
| Receiving Yards | 999.5 | 50% over | 1178.7 | +17.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DAL vs PHI | 3-30-0 (4 tgt) | 6.0 |
| W2 | DAL vs NYG | 5-68-1 (9 tgt) | 17.8 |
| W3 | DAL vs CHI | 5-68-1 (9 tgt) | 17.8 |
| W4 | DAL vs GB | 8-134-2 (11 tgt) | 33.4 |
| W5 | DAL vs NYJ | 2-57-1 (4 tgt) | 13.7 |
| W6 | DAL vs CAR | 9-168-1 (11 tgt) | 31.8 |
| W7 | DAL vs WAS | 4-82-0 (6 tgt) | 12.2 |
| W8 | DAL vs DEN | 7-78-0 (9 tgt) | 14.8 |
| W9 | DAL vs ARI | 6-79-0 (9 tgt) | 13.9 |
| W11 | DAL vs LV | 9-144-1 (11 tgt) | 29.4 |
| W12 | DAL vs PHI | 9-146-1 (9 tgt) | 29.6 |
| W13 | DAL vs KC | 6-88-0 (13 tgt) | 16.8 |
| W14 | DAL vs DET | 5-37-0 (9 tgt) | 8.7 |
| W15 | DAL vs MIN | 3-33-0 (6 tgt) | 6.3 |
| W16 | DAL vs LAC | 7-130-1 (9 tgt) | 26.0 |
| W17 | DAL vs WAS | 4-78-0 (5 tgt) | 11.8 |
| W18 | DAL vs NYG | 1-9-0 (3 tgt) | 1.9 |