Chase Brown
RBCIN · bye 6DNA HNova projection
211season budget (pts)
13.51
PPR / game
32
Nova rank
T6
tier
51.8
VORP
Market
15.9
ADP · 2.04
9-21
draft range
26
expert ECR
12-42
expert range
-15
Nova vs market rank
-15
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
58
floor (P10)
211
median (budget)
420
ceiling (P90)
28%
P(tier-1 season)
51%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB11-RB44
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.139x position norm · 45 games · 13.14 mean PPR
Chase Brown is Nova's 32nd-ranked player overall (RB, CIN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 211 points this season, about 13.51 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 16, ahead of Nova's 32.
Nova gives him about a 28% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 58 points (floor) to 420 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 32 | T6 | 51.8 | 28% | RB11-RB44 | 58.4-419.9 |
| Half PPR | 34 | T5 | 42.9 | 27% | RB12-RB45 | 51.6-370.8 |
| Standard | 37 | T7 | 35.4 | 25% | RB13-RB46 | 44.8-321.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 45 | T8 | 46.5 | 28% | RB11-RB44 | 58.4-419.9 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 330.3 |
| Receptions | 49.3 |
| Receiving TDs | 3.6 |
| Rushing Yards | 782.4 |
| Rushing TDs | 4.8 |
2025 usage profile17 games
67%
snap share
5.2
targets / game
14%
team target share
1%
air yards share
0.224
WOPR (opportunity)
4.1
receptions / game
78%
catch rate
5
yards / target
2.7
air yards / game
13.6
carries / game
62%
team carry share
4.4
yards / carry
49
red-zone opportunities (11 TDs)
+4.2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+5.8
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
22
broken tackles forced
33
rush yards before contact / g
26.9
rush yards after contact / g
5
drops
5.7%
drop rate
90.1
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CIN vs CLE | 21-43-1 rush, 2-8 rec | 13.1 |
| W2 | CIN vs JAX | 16-47-0 rush, 2-18 rec | 8.5 |
| W3 | CIN vs MIN | 10-3-0 rush, 4-17 rec | 6.0 |
| W4 | CIN vs DEN | 10-40-0 rush, 3-31 rec | 10.1 |
| W5 | CIN vs DET | 8-27-0 rush, 7-21 rec | 11.8 |
| W6 | CIN vs GB | 9-42-0 rush, 2-7 rec | 8.9 |
| W7 | CIN vs PIT | 11-108-0 rush, 2--8 rec | 12.0 |
| W8 | CIN vs NYJ | 12-73-1 rush, 3-32 rec | 25.5 |
| W9 | CIN vs CHI | 11-37-0 rush, 8-75 rec | 19.2 |
| W11 | CIN vs PIT | 18-99-0 rush, 6-28 rec | 18.7 |
| W12 | CIN vs NE | 19-107-0 rush, 2-23 rec | 15.0 |
| W13 | CIN vs BAL | 15-78-0 rush, 7-35 rec | 18.3 |
| W14 | CIN vs BUF | 12-23-1 rush, 3-12 rec | 18.5 |
| W15 | CIN vs BAL | 13-53-0 rush, 7-37 rec | 16.0 |
| W16 | CIN vs MIA | 12-66-1 rush, 4-43 rec | 32.9 |
| W17 | CIN vs ARI | 22-101-2 rush, 3-40 rec | 29.1 |
| W18 | CIN vs CLE | 13-72-0 rush, 4-18 rec | 19.0 |