Aaron Jones Sr.
RBMIN · bye 6DNA SNova projection
147season budget (pts)
10.54
PPR / game
117
Nova rank
T6
tier
-8.9
VORP
Market
92.4
ADP · 8.08
76-108
draft range
108
expert ECR
85-155
expert range
-22
Nova vs market rank
-22
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
42
floor (P10)
147
median (budget)
302
ceiling (P90)
14%
P(tier-1 season)
32%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB21-RB57
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.799x position norm · 40 games · 12.38 mean PPR
Aaron Jones Sr. is Nova's 117th-ranked player overall (RB, MIN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 147 points this season, about 10.54 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 92, ahead of Nova's 117.
Nova gives him about a 14% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 42 points (floor) to 302 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 117 | T6 | -8.9 | 14% | RB21-RB57 | 41.5-301.8 |
| Half PPR | 116 | T6 | -9.4 | 13% | RB21-RB58 | 37-269.1 |
| Standard | 120 | T7 | -8.5 | 13% | RB21-RB57 | 32.5-236.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 132 | T8 | -14.1 | 14% | RB21-RB57 | 41.5-301.8 |
Nova season stat lines14 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 247.6 |
| Receptions | 32.6 |
| Receiving TDs | 1.2 |
| Rushing Yards | 689.5 |
| Rushing TDs | 2.8 |
2025 usage profile12 games
55%
snap share
3.4
targets / game
14%
team target share
-1%
air yards share
0.203
WOPR (opportunity)
2.3
receptions / game
68%
catch rate
4.9
yards / target
-2.1
air yards / game
11
carries / game
46%
team carry share
4.2
yards / carry
19
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
-0.7
TD equity (under pace, due)
-0.7
TD pace vs position (3 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
5
broken tackles forced
26.2
rush yards before contact / g
19.5
rush yards after contact / g
2
drops
9.7%
drop rate
79
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | MIN vs CHI | 8-23-0 rush, 3-44 rec | 15.7 |
| W2 | MIN vs ATL | 5-23-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 2.3 |
| W8 | MIN vs LAC | 5-15-0 rush, 2-15 rec | 5.0 |
| W9 | MIN vs DET | 9-78-0 rush, 2-20 rec | 11.8 |
| W10 | MIN vs BAL | 9-47-1 rush, 3-22 rec | 15.9 |
| W11 | MIN vs CHI | 16-70-0 rush, 3-11 rec | 11.1 |
| W12 | MIN vs GB | 9-41-0 rush, 3-16 rec | 8.7 |
| W13 | MIN vs SEA | 6-3-0 rush, 4-22 rec | 4.5 |
| W14 | MIN vs WAS | 14-76-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 7.6 |
| W15 | MIN vs DAL | 12-34-0 rush, 3-31 rec | 9.5 |
| W16 | MIN vs NYG | 21-85-0 rush, 2-8 rec | 11.3 |
| W17 | MIN vs DET | 18-53-1 rush, 3-10 rec | 15.3 |