Saquon Barkley
RBPHI · bye 10DNA VNova projection
234season budget (pts)
15.02
PPR / game
19
Nova rank
T5
tier
74
VORP
Market
20.2
ADP · 2.08
11-29
draft range
18
expert ECR
5-33
expert range
+1
Nova vs market rank
+1
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
64
floor (P10)
234
median (budget)
451
ceiling (P90)
32%
P(tier-1 season)
56%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB10-RB41
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.099x position norm · 46 games · 17.63 mean PPR
Saquon Barkley is Nova's 19th-ranked player overall (RB, PHI), in Tier 5. Nova projects roughly 234 points this season, about 15.02 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 20, Nova 19).
Nova gives him about a 32% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 64 points (floor) to 451 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 19 | T5 | 74 | 32% | RB10-RB41 | 63.6-451.3 |
| Half PPR | 16 | T5 | 73.6 | 34% | RB9-RB39 | 59.2-420 |
| Standard | 14 | T5 | 74.6 | 36% | RB9-RB37 | 54.8-388.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 28 | T7 | 68.8 | 32% | RB10-RB41 | 63.6-451.3 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 243.7 |
| Receptions | 32.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 2.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 1188.6 |
| Rushing TDs | 7.5 |
2025 usage profile16 games
78%
snap share
3.1
targets / game
12%
team target share
-1%
air yards share
0.176
WOPR (opportunity)
2.3
receptions / game
74%
catch rate
5.5
yards / target
1.9
air yards / game
17.5
carries / game
62%
team carry share
4.1
yards / carry
52
red-zone opportunities (6 TDs)
-0.9
TD equity (under pace, due)
+4.1
TD pace vs position (9 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
20
broken tackles forced
44.2
rush yards before contact / g
27
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
1.3%
drop rate
83
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PHI vs DAL | 18-60-1 rush, 4-24 rec | 18.4 |
| W2 | PHI vs KC | 22-88-1 rush, 2-6 rec | 17.4 |
| W3 | PHI vs LA | 18-46-0 rush, 4-9 rec | 9.5 |
| W4 | PHI vs TB | 19-43-1 rush, 4-31 rec | 17.4 |
| W5 | PHI vs DEN | 6-30-0 rush, 3-58 rec | 17.8 |
| W6 | PHI vs NYG | 12-58-0 rush, 2-9 rec | 8.7 |
| W7 | PHI vs MIN | 18-44-0 rush, 1--2 rec | 5.2 |
| W8 | PHI vs NYG | 14-150-1 rush, 4-24 rec | 33.4 |
| W10 | PHI vs GB | 22-60-0 rush, 3-41 rec | 13.1 |
| W11 | PHI vs DET | 26-83-0 rush, 1-7 rec | 10.0 |
| W12 | PHI vs DAL | 10-22-0 rush, 7-52 rec | 12.4 |
| W13 | PHI vs CHI | 13-56-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 5.6 |
| W14 | PHI vs LAC | 20-122-1 rush, 0-0 rec | 18.2 |
| W15 | PHI vs LV | 22-78-1 rush, 2-14 rec | 17.2 |
| W16 | PHI vs WAS | 21-132-1 rush, 0-0 rec | 21.2 |
| W17 | PHI vs BUF | 19-68-0 rush | 6.8 |