Travis Kelce
TEKC · bye 5DNA BNova projection
172season budget (pts)
10.72
PPR / game
48
Nova rank
T6
tier
33.4
VORP
Market
92.0
ADP · 8.08
70-119
draft range
106
expert ECR
84-157
expert range
+46
Nova vs market rank
+46
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
64
floor (P10)
172
median (budget)
284
ceiling (P90)
24%
P(tier-1 season)
44%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE7-TE27
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.971x position norm · 48 games · 12.67 mean PPR
Travis Kelce is Nova's 48th-ranked player overall (TE, KC), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 172 points this season, about 10.72 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 92, well behind Nova's 48, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 24% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 64 points (floor) to 284 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 48 | T6 | 33.4 | 24% | TE7-TE27 | 64.4-284.1 |
| Half PPR | 62 | T5 | 21.1 | 23% | TE7-TE28 | 50.5-223 |
| Standard | 71 | T7 | 10.1 | 21% | TE8-TE29 | 36.7-161.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 55 | T8 | 33.4 | 24% | TE7-TE27 | 64.4-284.1 |
Nova season stat lines16.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 750.5 |
| Receptions | 74 |
| Receiving TDs | 3.8 |
2025 usage profile17 games
82%
snap share
6.4
targets / game
20%
team target share
18%
air yards share
0.427
WOPR (opportunity)
4.5
receptions / game
70%
catch rate
7.9
yards / target
43.2
air yards / game
14
red-zone opportunities (3 TDs)
+0.3
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.9
TD pace vs position (5 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
1
broken tackles forced
1
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
7
drops
6.3%
drop rate
91.5
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC vs LAC | 2-47-1 (4 tgt) | 12.7 |
| W2 | KC vs PHI | 4-61-0 (6 tgt) | 10.1 |
| W3 | KC vs NYG | 4-26-0 (7 tgt) | 6.6 |
| W4 | KC vs BAL | 5-48-0 (5 tgt) | 9.8 |
| W5 | KC vs JAX | 7-61-1 (8 tgt) | 19.1 |
| W6 | KC vs DET | 6-78-0 (7 tgt) | 13.8 |
| W7 | KC vs LV | 3-54-0 (3 tgt) | 8.4 |
| W8 | KC vs WAS | 6-99-1 (8 tgt) | 21.9 |
| W9 | KC vs BUF | 4-66-0 (5 tgt) | 12.6 |
| W11 | KC vs DEN | 9-91-1 (13 tgt) | 24.1 |
| W12 | KC vs IND | 4-43-0 (6 tgt), 1-1 rush | 8.4 |
| W13 | KC vs DAL | 5-45-1 (6 tgt) | 15.5 |
| W14 | KC vs HOU | 1-8-0 (5 tgt) | 1.8 |
| W15 | KC vs LAC | 7-70-0 (9 tgt) | 14.0 |
| W16 | KC vs TEN | 1-6-0 (4 tgt) | 1.6 |
| W17 | KC vs DEN | 5-36-0 (6 tgt) | 8.6 |
| W18 | KC vs LV | 3-12-0 (6 tgt) | 4.2 |