Luther Burden III
WRCHI · bye 10ROOKIE/NANova projection
136season budget (pts)
8.96
PPR / game
143
Nova rank
T6
tier
-26
VORP
Market
46.2
ADP · 4.10
38-64
draft range
51
expert ECR
32-69
expert range
-96
Nova vs market rank
-96
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
50
floor (P10)
136
median (budget)
231
ceiling (P90)
6%
P(tier-1 season)
15%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR34-WR92
likely finish (P25-P75)
Luther Burden III is Nova's 143rd-ranked player overall (WR, CHI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 136 points this season, about 8.96 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 46, ahead of Nova's 143.
Nova gives him about a 6% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 50 points (floor) to 231 (ceiling). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 143 | T6 | -26 | 6% | WR34-WR92 | 50-230.8 |
| Half PPR | 142 | T6 | -24.4 | 6% | WR35-WR92 | 40.9-188.5 |
| Standard | 145 | T7 | -19.6 | 5% | WR35-WR93 | 31.7-146.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 155 | T8 | -28 | 6% | WR34-WR92 | 50-230.8 |
Nova season stat lines15.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 685.2 |
| Receptions | 49.8 |
| Receiving TDs | 2.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 37.5 |
2025 usage profile15 games
40%
snap share
4
targets / game
13%
team target share
11%
air yards share
0.271
WOPR (opportunity)
3.1
receptions / game
78%
catch rate
10.9
yards / target
30.7
air yards / game
0.4
carries / game
1%
team carry share
6.2
yards / carry
4
red-zone opportunities (0 TDs)
-0.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
-0.9
TD pace vs position (2 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
4.5
rush yards before contact / g
1.7
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
4.7%
drop rate
100.2
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CHI vs MIN | 1--3-0 (1 tgt) | 0.7 |
| W2 | CHI vs DET | 1-5-0 (2 tgt) | 1.5 |
| W3 | CHI vs DAL | 3-101-1 (3 tgt), 1-7 rush | 19.8 |
| W4 | CHI vs LV | 2--4-0 (2 tgt) | 1.6 |
| W6 | CHI vs WAS | 4-51-0 (4 tgt) | 9.1 |
| W7 | CHI vs NO | 1-22-0 (2 tgt), 1--1 rush | 3.1 |
| W8 | CHI vs BAL | 1--1-0 (1 tgt) | 0.9 |
| W10 | CHI vs NYG | 3-51-0 (3 tgt) | 8.1 |
| W11 | CHI vs MIN | 3-27-0 (5 tgt) | 5.7 |
| W12 | CHI vs PIT | 3-46-0 (5 tgt), 1-15 rush | 9.1 |
| W13 | CHI vs PHI | 4-33-0 (6 tgt), 1-3 rush | 7.6 |
| W14 | CHI vs GB | 4-67-0 (6 tgt), 1-3 rush | 11.0 |
| W15 | CHI vs CLE | 6-84-0 (7 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W17 | CHI vs SF | 8-138-1 (9 tgt) | 27.8 |
| W18 | CHI vs DET | 3-35-0 (4 tgt), 1-10 rush | 7.5 |