Home
Draft
Draft War RoomPreseason RankingsMock DraftRookie BoardHandcuff FinderStrength of ScheduleBye PlannerCheat SheetValues & ReachesScarcity CurveStack Finder
In-Season
Weekly ProjectionsWaiver WireInjury WatchScenariosLineup OptimizerTrendingScores
Tools
CompareTrade AnalyzerWhat-IfMy LeagueConnect LeagueTrade FinderTeamsRoster Report CardExport
Research
Divergence WatchLine MoversSignal LibraryArmchair QBAsk NovaFloor / CeilingOpportunityConsistency
About
MethodologyAccountabilityChallenge the Model

Ashton Jeanty

RBLV · bye 13DNA V

← back to rankings

Nova projection
240season budget (pts)
14.49
PPR / game
18
Nova rank
T4
tier
82.1
VORP
Market
12.4
ADP · 1.12
6-17
draft range
16
expert ECR
5-37
expert range
-6
Nova vs market rank
-6
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
24066floor P10477ceiling P90
66
floor (P10)
240
median (budget)
477
ceiling (P90)
35%
P(tier-1 season)
57%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB9-RB39
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.098x position norm · 17 games · 14.42 mean PPR
Early SOS 13.3Playoff SOS 15.7Bye 13

Ashton Jeanty is Nova's 18th-ranked player overall (RB, LV), in Tier 4. Nova projects roughly 240 points this season, about 14.49 per game.

Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 12, Nova 18).

Nova gives him about a 35% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 66 points (floor) to 477 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR18T482.135%RB9-RB3966.1-476.9
Half PPR17T571.234%RB9-RB4058.8-424.1
Standard17T661.632%RB9-RB4051.5-371.2
2QB / Superflex25T676.935%RB9-RB3966.1-476.9

Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards339.1
Receptions53.5
Receiving TDs4.7
Rushing Yards957.1
Rushing TDs5

2025 usage profile17 games

78%
snap share
4.3
targets / game
15%
team target share
-6%
air yards share
0.181
WOPR (opportunity)
3.2
receptions / game
75%
catch rate
4.7
yards / target
-6.1
air yards / game
15.6
carries / game
71%
team carry share
3.7
yards / carry
45
red-zone opportunities (7 TDs)
+0.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.8
TD pace vs position (10 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

32
broken tackles forced
24.6
rush yards before contact / g
32.7
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
4.6%
drop rate
87.8
passer rating when targeted

No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1LV vs NE19-38-1 rush, 2-2 rec12.0
W2LV vs LAC11-43-0 rush, 3-1 rec7.4
W3LV vs WAS17-63-0 rush6.3
W4LV vs CHI21-138-1 rush, 2-17 rec33.5
W5LV vs IND14-67-0 rush, 5-42 rec15.9
W6LV vs TEN23-75-1 rush, 2-11 rec16.6
W7LV vs KC6-21-0 rush, 1-13 rec4.4
W9LV vs JAX13-42-0 rush, 5-47 rec19.9
W10LV vs DEN19-60-1 rush, 3-3 rec15.3
W11LV vs DAL6-7-0 rush, 6-27 rec9.4
W12LV vs CLE17-50-0 rush, 8-58 rec24.8
W13LV vs LAC15-31-0 rush, 6-30 rec12.1
W14LV vs DEN10-30-0 rush, 2-8 rec5.8
W15LV vs PHI9-35-0 rush, 4-7 rec8.2
W16LV vs HOU24-128-1 rush, 1-60 rec31.8
W17LV vs NYG16-60-0 rush, 2-13 rec9.3
W18LV vs KC26-87-0 rush, 3-7 rec12.4