Ashton Jeanty
RBLV · bye 13DNA VNova projection
240season budget (pts)
14.49
PPR / game
18
Nova rank
T4
tier
82.1
VORP
Market
12.4
ADP · 1.12
6-17
draft range
16
expert ECR
5-37
expert range
-6
Nova vs market rank
-6
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
66
floor (P10)
240
median (budget)
477
ceiling (P90)
35%
P(tier-1 season)
57%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB9-RB39
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.098x position norm · 17 games · 14.42 mean PPR
Ashton Jeanty is Nova's 18th-ranked player overall (RB, LV), in Tier 4. Nova projects roughly 240 points this season, about 14.49 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 12, Nova 18).
Nova gives him about a 35% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 66 points (floor) to 477 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 18 | T4 | 82.1 | 35% | RB9-RB39 | 66.1-476.9 |
| Half PPR | 17 | T5 | 71.2 | 34% | RB9-RB40 | 58.8-424.1 |
| Standard | 17 | T6 | 61.6 | 32% | RB9-RB40 | 51.5-371.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 25 | T6 | 76.9 | 35% | RB9-RB39 | 66.1-476.9 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 339.1 |
| Receptions | 53.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.7 |
| Rushing Yards | 957.1 |
| Rushing TDs | 5 |
2025 usage profile17 games
78%
snap share
4.3
targets / game
15%
team target share
-6%
air yards share
0.181
WOPR (opportunity)
3.2
receptions / game
75%
catch rate
4.7
yards / target
-6.1
air yards / game
15.6
carries / game
71%
team carry share
3.7
yards / carry
45
red-zone opportunities (7 TDs)
+0.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.8
TD pace vs position (10 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
32
broken tackles forced
24.6
rush yards before contact / g
32.7
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
4.6%
drop rate
87.8
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LV vs NE | 19-38-1 rush, 2-2 rec | 12.0 |
| W2 | LV vs LAC | 11-43-0 rush, 3-1 rec | 7.4 |
| W3 | LV vs WAS | 17-63-0 rush | 6.3 |
| W4 | LV vs CHI | 21-138-1 rush, 2-17 rec | 33.5 |
| W5 | LV vs IND | 14-67-0 rush, 5-42 rec | 15.9 |
| W6 | LV vs TEN | 23-75-1 rush, 2-11 rec | 16.6 |
| W7 | LV vs KC | 6-21-0 rush, 1-13 rec | 4.4 |
| W9 | LV vs JAX | 13-42-0 rush, 5-47 rec | 19.9 |
| W10 | LV vs DEN | 19-60-1 rush, 3-3 rec | 15.3 |
| W11 | LV vs DAL | 6-7-0 rush, 6-27 rec | 9.4 |
| W12 | LV vs CLE | 17-50-0 rush, 8-58 rec | 24.8 |
| W13 | LV vs LAC | 15-31-0 rush, 6-30 rec | 12.1 |
| W14 | LV vs DEN | 10-30-0 rush, 2-8 rec | 5.8 |
| W15 | LV vs PHI | 9-35-0 rush, 4-7 rec | 8.2 |
| W16 | LV vs HOU | 24-128-1 rush, 1-60 rec | 31.8 |
| W17 | LV vs NYG | 16-60-0 rush, 2-13 rec | 9.3 |
| W18 | LV vs KC | 26-87-0 rush, 3-7 rec | 12.4 |