Lamar Jackson
QBBAL · bye 13DNA VNova projection
300season budget (pts)
19.98
PPR / game
38
Nova rank
T6
tier
44.6
VORP
Market
53.0
ADP · 5.05
22-69
draft range
30
expert ECR
25-62
expert range
+16
Nova vs market rank
+16
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
102
floor (P10)
300
median (budget)
535
ceiling (P90)
28%
P(tier-1 season)
48%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB6-QB27
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.092x position norm · 46 games · 21.23 mean PPR
Lamar Jackson is Nova's 38th-ranked player overall (QB, BAL), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 300 points this season, about 19.98 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 53, well behind Nova's 38, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 28% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 102 points (floor) to 535 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 38 | T6 | 44.6 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 102.3-535 |
| Half PPR | 31 | T5 | 44.6 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 102.3-535 |
| Standard | 27 | T6 | 44.6 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 102.3-535 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 15 | T4 | 93.1 | 28% | QB6-QB27 | 102.3-535 |
Nova season stat lines15 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 596.7 |
| Rushing TDs | 3.2 |
| Passing Yards | 3268.2 |
| Passing TDs | 27.3 |
2025 usage profile13 games
92%
snap share
5.2
carries / game
19%
team carry share
5.2
yards / carry
13
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+5.1
TD pace vs position (23 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
7
broken tackles forced
19.8
rush yards before contact / g
7.1
rush yards after contact / g
82
times pressured
23.1%
pressure rate faced
118
times blitzed
36
times sacked
26
times hurried
20
times hit
17.1%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL vs BUF | 209-2-0 pass, 6-70-1 rush | 29.4 |
| W2 | BAL vs CLE | 225-4-0 pass, 2-13-0 rush | 26.3 |
| W3 | BAL vs DET | 288-3-0 pass, 7-35-0 rush | 27.0 |
| W4 | BAL vs KC | 147-1-1 pass, 6-48-0 rush | 10.7 |
| W9 | BAL vs MIA | 204-4-0 pass, 5-14-0 rush | 25.6 |
| W10 | BAL vs MIN | 176-1-0 pass, 9-36-0 rush | 16.6 |
| W11 | BAL vs CLE | 193-0-2 pass, 4-10-0 rush | 4.7 |
| W12 | BAL vs NYJ | 153-0-0 pass, 7-11-0 rush | 7.2 |
| W13 | BAL vs CIN | 246-0-1 pass, 6-27-0 rush | 6.5 |
| W14 | BAL vs PIT | 219-1-1 pass, 7-43-1 rush | 21.1 |
| W15 | BAL vs CIN | 150-2-1 pass, 2-26-0 rush | 14.6 |
| W16 | BAL vs NE | 101-0-0 pass, 2-7-0 rush | 4.7 |
| W18 | BAL vs PIT | 238-3-1 pass, 4-9-0 rush | 20.4 |