Rico Dowdle
RBPIT · bye 9DNA HNova projection
162season budget (pts)
10
PPR / game
87
Nova rank
T6
tier
4.6
VORP
Market
74.3
ADP · 7.02
62-96
draft range
76
expert ECR
63-108
expert range
-10
Nova vs market rank
-10
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
43
floor (P10)
162
median (budget)
327
ceiling (P90)
17%
P(tier-1 season)
36%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB18-RB55
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.134x position norm · 49 games · 10.32 mean PPR
Rico Dowdle is Nova's 87th-ranked player overall (RB, PIT), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 162 points this season, about 10 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 74, Nova 87).
Nova gives him about a 17% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 43 points (floor) to 327 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 87 | T6 | 4.6 | 17% | RB18-RB55 | 43-327 |
| Half PPR | 79 | T6 | 5.3 | 17% | RB18-RB55 | 39.1-296.8 |
| Standard | 73 | T7 | 7.4 | 17% | RB17-RB54 | 35.1-266.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 103 | T8 | -0.6 | 17% | RB18-RB55 | 43-327 |
Nova season stat lines16.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 220.2 |
| Receptions | 30.2 |
| Receiving TDs | 1.6 |
| Rushing Yards | 810 |
| Rushing TDs | 3.5 |
2025 usage profile17 games
56%
snap share
2.9
targets / game
11%
team target share
-3%
air yards share
0.143
WOPR (opportunity)
2.3
receptions / game
78%
catch rate
5.9
yards / target
-3.1
air yards / game
13.9
carries / game
50%
team carry share
4.6
yards / carry
40
red-zone opportunities (6 TDs)
+0.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.8
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
17
broken tackles forced
35.1
rush yards before contact / g
28.2
rush yards after contact / g
2
drops
3.3%
drop rate
89.8
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CAR vs JAX | 3-12-0 rush, 2-4 rec | 3.6 |
| W2 | CAR vs ARI | 6-9-0 rush, 1-10 rec | 2.9 |
| W3 | CAR vs ATL | 10-30-1 rush, 1-8 rec | 10.8 |
| W4 | CAR vs NE | 9-32-0 rush, 1--2 rec | 4.0 |
| W5 | CAR vs MIA | 23-206-1 rush, 3-28 rec | 32.4 |
| W6 | CAR vs DAL | 30-183-0 rush, 4-56 rec | 33.9 |
| W7 | CAR vs NYJ | 17-79-0 rush, 1-17 rec | 10.6 |
| W8 | CAR vs BUF | 8-54-0 rush | 5.4 |
| W9 | CAR vs GB | 25-130-2 rush, 2-11 rec | 28.1 |
| W10 | CAR vs NO | 18-53-1 rush, 3-10 rec | 15.3 |
| W11 | CAR vs ATL | 19-45-0 rush, 5-55 rec | 15.0 |
| W12 | CAR vs SF | 6-38-0 rush, 4-36 rec | 11.4 |
| W13 | CAR vs LA | 18-58-0 rush, 2-21 rec | 9.9 |
| W15 | CAR vs NO | 16-49-1 rush, 1-5 rec | 12.4 |
| W16 | CAR vs TB | 9-29-0 rush, 4-14 rec | 8.3 |
| W17 | CAR vs SEA | 12-59-0 rush, 3-4 rec | 9.3 |
| W18 | CAR vs TB | 7-10-0 rush, 2-20 rec | 3.0 |