Tee Higgins
WRCIN · bye 6DNA HNova projection
195season budget (pts)
13.81
PPR / game
50
Nova rank
T6
tier
32.1
VORP
Market
27.8
ADP · 3.04
20-34
draft range
28
expert ECR
19-50
expert range
-21
Nova vs market rank
-21
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
73
floor (P10)
195
median (budget)
328
ceiling (P90)
18%
P(tier-1 season)
36%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR17-WR65
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.135x position norm · 39 games · 14.65 mean PPR
Market coverage
-1
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Tee Higgins is Nova's 50th-ranked player overall (WR, CIN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 195 points this season, about 13.81 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 28, ahead of Nova's 50.
Nova gives him about a 18% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 73 points (floor) to 328 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 50 | T6 | 32.1 | 18% | WR17-WR65 | 72.7-327.5 |
| Half PPR | 48 | T5 | 29.3 | 19% | WR16-WR62 | 61.7-278.1 |
| Standard | 44 | T7 | 29.8 | 22% | WR14-WR58 | 50.7-228.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 59 | T8 | 30.1 | 18% | WR17-WR65 | 72.7-327.5 |
Nova season stat lines14.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 807.8 |
| Receptions | 58.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 9.1 |
2025 usage profile15 games
81%
snap share
6.5
targets / game
18%
team target share
33%
air yards share
0.505
WOPR (opportunity)
3.9
receptions / game
60%
catch rate
8.6
yards / target
87.6
air yards / game
16
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+0.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+8.1
TD pace vs position (11 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
5
broken tackles forced
2
drops
1.7%
drop rate
105
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 8.5 | 46% over | 9.1 | +7.1% |
| Receiving Yards | 874.5 | 50% over | 807.8 | -7.6% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CIN vs CLE | 3-33-0 (4 tgt) | 6.3 |
| W2 | CIN vs JAX | 3-56-1 (8 tgt) | 14.6 |
| W3 | CIN vs MIN | 1-15-0 (2 tgt) | 2.5 |
| W4 | CIN vs DEN | 3-32-0 (6 tgt) | 6.2 |
| W5 | CIN vs DET | 3-22-1 (7 tgt) | 11.2 |
| W6 | CIN vs GB | 5-62-0 (8 tgt) | 11.2 |
| W7 | CIN vs PIT | 6-96-1 (10 tgt) | 21.6 |
| W8 | CIN vs NYJ | 1-44-1 (2 tgt) | 11.4 |
| W9 | CIN vs CHI | 7-121-2 (9 tgt) | 33.1 |
| W11 | CIN vs PIT | 3-63-1 (8 tgt) | 15.3 |
| W12 | CIN vs NE | 5-31-0 (6 tgt) | 8.1 |
| W14 | CIN vs BUF | 6-92-2 (11 tgt) | 27.2 |
| W16 | CIN vs MIA | 3-53-1 (3 tgt) | 14.3 |
| W17 | CIN vs ARI | 4-59-0 (5 tgt) | 9.9 |
| W18 | CIN vs CLE | 6-67-1 (9 tgt) | 18.7 |