Michael Wilson
WRARI · bye 14DNA HNova projection
165season budget (pts)
10.42
PPR / game
89
Nova rank
T6
tier
2.8
VORP
Market
80.6
ADP · 7.09
59-99
draft range
95
expert ECR
70-125
expert range
-6
Nova vs market rank
-6
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
63
floor (P10)
165
median (budget)
278
ceiling (P90)
11%
P(tier-1 season)
24%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR25-WR78
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.163x position norm · 46 games · 9.99 mean PPR
Michael Wilson is Nova's 89th-ranked player overall (WR, ARI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 165 points this season, about 10.42 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 81, Nova 89).
Nova gives him about a 11% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 63 points (floor) to 278 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 89 | T6 | 2.8 | 11% | WR25-WR78 | 62.7-277.8 |
| Half PPR | 96 | T6 | 0 | 11% | WR25-WR77 | 51.6-228.5 |
| Standard | 91 | T7 | 0.4 | 11% | WR25-WR77 | 40.4-179.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 97 | T8 | 0.8 | 11% | WR25-WR78 | 62.7-277.8 |
Nova season stat lines15.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 752.3 |
| Receptions | 58.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 2.7 |
2025 usage profile17 games
81%
snap share
7.4
targets / game
19%
team target share
31%
air yards share
0.507
WOPR (opportunity)
4.6
receptions / game
62%
catch rate
8
yards / target
88.4
air yards / game
11
red-zone opportunities (3 TDs)
+0.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3.7
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
1
drops
0.4%
drop rate
83.9
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ARI vs NO | 1-5-0 (4 tgt) | 1.5 |
| W2 | ARI vs CAR | 1-11-1 (2 tgt) | 8.1 |
| W3 | ARI vs SF | 1-5-0 (2 tgt) | 1.5 |
| W4 | ARI vs SEA | 3-15-0 (6 tgt) | 4.5 |
| W5 | ARI vs TEN | 2-16-0 (4 tgt) | 3.6 |
| W6 | ARI vs IND | 4-44-0 (5 tgt) | 8.4 |
| W7 | ARI vs GB | 3-40-0 (4 tgt) | 7.0 |
| W9 | ARI vs DAL | 3-61-0 (4 tgt) | 9.1 |
| W10 | ARI vs SEA | 4-34-0 (7 tgt) | 7.4 |
| W11 | ARI vs SF | 15-185-0 (18 tgt) | 33.5 |
| W12 | ARI vs JAX | 10-118-0 (15 tgt) | 21.8 |
| W13 | ARI vs TB | 3-36-0 (7 tgt) | 6.6 |
| W14 | ARI vs LA | 11-142-2 (16 tgt) | 37.2 |
| W15 | ARI vs HOU | 5-54-1 (11 tgt) | 16.4 |
| W16 | ARI vs ATL | 2-52-1 (3 tgt) | 13.2 |
| W17 | ARI vs CIN | 5-89-1 (10 tgt) | 19.9 |
| W18 | ARI vs LA | 5-99-1 (8 tgt) | 20.9 |