Jahmyr Gibbs
RBDET · bye 6DNA HNova projection
328season budget (pts)
20.17
PPR / game
1
Nova rank
T1
tier
170.9
VORP
Market
2.0
ADP · 1.02
1-4
draft range
2
expert ECR
1-3
expert range
+1
Nova vs market rank
+1
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
95
floor (P10)
328
median (budget)
670
ceiling (P90)
54%
P(tier-1 season)
74%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB4-RB26
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.167x position norm · 49 games · 19.83 mean PPR
Market coverage
+1
divergence vs Vegas · 4 stats · directional
Jahmyr Gibbs is Nova's 1st-ranked player overall (RB, DET), in Tier 1. Nova projects roughly 328 points this season, about 20.17 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 2, Nova 1).
Nova gives him about a 54% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 95 points (floor) to 670 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 1 | T1 | 170.9 | 54% | RB4-RB26 | 95-669.9 |
| Half PPR | 1 | T1 | 155.6 | 54% | RB4-RB26 | 86.1-606.8 |
| Standard | 1 | T1 | 141.7 | 54% | RB4-RB25 | 77.1-543.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 1 | T1 | 165.7 | 54% | RB4-RB26 | 95-669.9 |
Nova season stat lines16.3 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 506.3 |
| Receptions | 62.2 |
| Receiving TDs | 3.7 |
| Rushing Yards | 1182.8 |
| Rushing TDs | 12.8 |
2025 usage profile17 games
67%
snap share
5.5
targets / game
16%
team target share
2%
air yards share
0.253
WOPR (opportunity)
4.5
receptions / game
82%
catch rate
6.6
yards / target
3.2
air yards / game
14.3
carries / game
56%
team carry share
5
yards / carry
67
red-zone opportunities (14 TDs)
+4.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+12.8
TD pace vs position (18 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
22
broken tackles forced
49.5
rush yards before contact / g
22.4
rush yards after contact / g
3
drops
2%
drop rate
98.4
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 37% over | 3.7 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 449.5 | 50% over | 506.3 | +12.6% |
| Rushing Yards | 1199.5 | 50% over | 1182.8 | -1.4% |
| Rushing TDs | 12.5 | 47% over | 12.8 | +2.4% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DET vs GB | 9-19-0 rush, 10-31 rec | 15.0 |
| W2 | DET vs CHI | 12-94-1 rush, 3-10 rec | 19.4 |
| W3 | DET vs BAL | 22-67-2 rush, 5-32 rec | 26.9 |
| W4 | DET vs CLE | 15-91-1 rush, 2-6 rec | 17.7 |
| W5 | DET vs CIN | 12-54-0 rush, 2-33 rec | 16.7 |
| W6 | DET vs KC | 17-65-0 rush, 1-0 rec | 7.5 |
| W7 | DET vs TB | 17-136-2 rush, 3-82 rec | 36.8 |
| W9 | DET vs MIN | 9-25-0 rush, 3-3 rec | 5.8 |
| W10 | DET vs WAS | 15-142-2 rush, 3-30 rec | 38.2 |
| W11 | DET vs PHI | 12-39-0 rush, 5-107 rec | 19.6 |
| W12 | DET vs NYG | 15-219-2 rush, 11-45 rec | 55.4 |
| W13 | DET vs GB | 20-68-0 rush, 3-18 rec | 11.6 |
| W14 | DET vs DAL | 12-43-3 rush, 7-77 rec | 37.0 |
| W15 | DET vs LA | 13-38-0 rush, 4-20 rec | 9.8 |
| W16 | DET vs PIT | 7-2-0 rush, 10-66 rec | 22.8 |
| W17 | DET vs MIN | 17-41-0 rush, 2-23 rec | 6.4 |
| W18 | DET vs CHI | 19-80-0 rush, 3-33 rec | 20.3 |