DJ Moore
WRBUF · bye 7DNA HNova projection
188season budget (pts)
11.35
PPR / game
60
Nova rank
T6
tier
26.3
VORP
Market
66.3
ADP · 6.06
49-86
draft range
62
expert ECR
26-89
expert range
+8
Nova vs market rank
+8
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
72
floor (P10)
188
median (budget)
323
ceiling (P90)
17%
P(tier-1 season)
35%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR18-WR66
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.155x position norm · 51 games · 13.66 mean PPR
DJ Moore is Nova's 60th-ranked player overall (WR, BUF), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 188 points this season, about 11.35 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 66, Nova 60).
Nova gives him about a 17% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 72 points (floor) to 323 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 60 | T6 | 26.3 | 17% | WR18-WR66 | 72.3-323 |
| Half PPR | 63 | T5 | 20.5 | 17% | WR18-WR66 | 60-267.7 |
| Standard | 64 | T7 | 18 | 18% | WR17-WR64 | 47.6-212.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 70 | T8 | 24.2 | 17% | WR18-WR66 | 72.3-323 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 791.5 |
| Receptions | 64.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.6 |
| Rushing Yards | 57 |
2025 usage profile17 games
85%
snap share
5
targets / game
16%
team target share
20%
air yards share
0.381
WOPR (opportunity)
2.9
receptions / game
59%
catch rate
8
yards / target
58.1
air yards / game
0.9
carries / game
3%
team carry share
5.3
yards / carry
13
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.6
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.7
TD pace vs position (8 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
6
broken tackles forced
6.4
rush yards before contact / g
2.3
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
5.7%
drop rate
87.2
passer rating when targeted
0
times pressured
0%
pressure rate faced
1
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
0
times hit
0%
bad throw rate
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 44% over | 5.6 | -13.8% |
| Receiving Yards | 824.5 | 51% over | 791.5 | -4% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CHI vs MIN | 3-68-0 (5 tgt), 3-8 rush | 10.6 |
| W2 | CHI vs DET | 5-46-0 (6 tgt) | 9.6 |
| W3 | CHI vs DAL | 4-21-1 (5 tgt), 3-7 rush | 12.8 |
| W4 | CHI vs LV | 4-38-0 (5 tgt) | 7.8 |
| W6 | CHI vs WAS | 3-42-0 (5 tgt), 2-10 rush | 8.2 |
| W7 | CHI vs NO | 3-43-0 (5 tgt), 1-9 rush | 8.2 |
| W8 | CHI vs BAL | 4-73-0 (7 tgt), 2-3 rush | 11.6 |
| W9 | CHI vs CIN | 4-72-0 (6 tgt), 1-17 rush | 23.0 |
| W10 | CHI vs NYG | 0-0-0 (4 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W11 | CHI vs MIN | 1-18-0 (3 tgt), 1-3 rush | 3.1 |
| W12 | CHI vs PIT | 5-64-2 (7 tgt) | 23.4 |
| W13 | CHI vs PHI | 2-17-0 (5 tgt), 1-10 rush | 4.7 |
| W14 | CHI vs GB | 1--4-0 (3 tgt) | 0.6 |
| W15 | CHI vs CLE | 4-69-2 (5 tgt) | 22.9 |
| W16 | CHI vs GB | 5-97-1 (7 tgt), 1-12 rush | 21.9 |
| W17 | CHI vs SF | 1-7-0 (4 tgt) | 1.7 |
| W18 | CHI vs DET | 1-11-0 (3 tgt) | 2.1 |