Brian Thomas Jr.
WRJAX · bye 7DNA BNova projection
198season budget (pts)
12.96
PPR / game
47
Nova rank
T6
tier
33.8
VORP
Market
84.3
ADP · 7.12
63-102
draft range
77
expert ECR
51-109
expert range
+39
Nova vs market rank
+39
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
74
floor (P10)
198
median (budget)
334
ceiling (P90)
19%
P(tier-1 season)
37%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR16-WR64
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.928x position norm · 31 games · 13.64 mean PPR
Market coverage
+27
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Brian Thomas Jr. is Nova's 47th-ranked player overall (WR, JAX), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 198 points this season, about 12.96 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 84, well behind Nova's 47, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 19% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 74 points (floor) to 334 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +27). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 47 | T6 | 33.8 | 19% | WR16-WR64 | 74-334 |
| Half PPR | 50 | T5 | 28.2 | 20% | WR15-WR63 | 61.8-279.2 |
| Standard | 48 | T7 | 25.8 | 21% | WR15-WR61 | 49.7-224.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 57 | T8 | 31.8 | 19% | WR16-WR64 | 74-334 |
Nova season stat lines15.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 940.8 |
| Receptions | 64.2 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 31.6 |
2025 usage profile14 games
78%
snap share
6.5
targets / game
19%
team target share
32%
air yards share
0.511
WOPR (opportunity)
3.4
receptions / game
53%
catch rate
7.8
yards / target
93.9
air yards / game
8
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.5
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.3
TD pace vs position (3 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
7
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
10
drops
9.2%
drop rate
84.4
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 47% over | 5.1 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 724.5 | 51% over | 940.8 | +29.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | JAX vs CAR | 1-11-0 (7 tgt), 1-9 rush | 9.0 |
| W2 | JAX vs CIN | 4-49-0 (12 tgt) | 8.9 |
| W3 | JAX vs HOU | 2-55-0 (6 tgt) | 7.5 |
| W4 | JAX vs SF | 5-49-0 (7 tgt), 1-7 rush | 10.6 |
| W5 | JAX vs KC | 4-80-0 (6 tgt) | 12.0 |
| W6 | JAX vs SEA | 8-90-1 (10 tgt) | 23.0 |
| W7 | JAX vs LA | 3-31-0 (7 tgt) | 6.1 |
| W9 | JAX vs LV | 3-55-0 (5 tgt) | 8.5 |
| W13 | JAX vs TEN | 2-28-0 (3 tgt) | 4.8 |
| W14 | JAX vs IND | 3-87-0 (6 tgt) | 11.7 |
| W15 | JAX vs NYJ | 4-66-1 (7 tgt), 1-5 rush | 17.1 |
| W16 | JAX vs DEN | 2-18-0 (3 tgt) | 3.8 |
| W17 | JAX vs IND | 4-39-0 (7 tgt) | 7.9 |
| W18 | JAX vs TEN | 3-49-0 (5 tgt) | 7.9 |