Chris Olave
WRNO · bye 8DNA SNova projection
205season budget (pts)
14.46
PPR / game
39
Nova rank
T6
tier
43.9
VORP
Market
20.4
ADP · 2.08
16-25
draft range
24
expert ECR
18-50
expert range
-18
Nova vs market rank
-18
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
77
floor (P10)
205
median (budget)
353
ceiling (P90)
22%
P(tier-1 season)
40%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR14-WR60
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.9x position norm · 40 games · 14.4 mean PPR
Market coverage
-7
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Chris Olave is Nova's 39th-ranked player overall (WR, NO), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 205 points this season, about 14.46 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 20, ahead of Nova's 39.
Nova gives him about a 22% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 77 points (floor) to 353 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -7). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 39 | T6 | 43.9 | 22% | WR14-WR60 | 77.3-352.7 |
| Half PPR | 44 | T5 | 31.6 | 21% | WR15-WR61 | 62.7-286.3 |
| Standard | 57 | T7 | 22.6 | 20% | WR15-WR62 | 48.2-219.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 49 | T8 | 41.9 | 22% | WR14-WR60 | 77.3-352.7 |
Nova season stat lines14.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 933 |
| Receptions | 77.5 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.8 |
| Rushing Yards | 1.3 |
2025 usage profile16 games
84%
snap share
9.8
targets / game
29%
team target share
41%
air yards share
0.725
WOPR (opportunity)
6.2
receptions / game
64%
catch rate
7.5
yards / target
115.1
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+5.9
TD pace vs position (9 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
-3
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
5
drops
4.9%
drop rate
94.7
passer rating when targeted
0
times pressured
0%
pressure rate faced
0
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
0
times hit
0%
bad throw rate
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 52% over | 5.8 | +5.5% |
| Receiving Yards | 1024.5 | 50% over | 933 | -8.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NO vs ARI | 7-54-0 (13 tgt) | 12.4 |
| W2 | NO vs SF | 6-54-0 (10 tgt) | 11.4 |
| W3 | NO vs SEA | 10-57-0 (14 tgt) | 15.7 |
| W4 | NO vs BUF | 3-20-1 (6 tgt) | 9.0 |
| W5 | NO vs NYG | 7-59-0 (11 tgt) | 12.9 |
| W6 | NO vs NE | 6-98-0 (10 tgt) | 15.8 |
| W7 | NO vs CHI | 5-98-2 (7 tgt) | 26.8 |
| W8 | NO vs TB | 8-63-0 (12 tgt), 1--3 rush | 14.0 |
| W9 | NO vs LA | 3-57-0 (4 tgt) | 8.7 |
| W10 | NO vs CAR | 5-104-1 (8 tgt) | 21.4 |
| W12 | NO vs ATL | 9-70-0 (13 tgt) | 16.0 |
| W13 | NO vs MIA | 4-47-1 (7 tgt) | 14.7 |
| W14 | NO vs TB | 3-30-0 (5 tgt) | 6.0 |
| W15 | NO vs CAR | 6-85-1 (9 tgt) | 20.5 |
| W16 | NO vs NYJ | 10-148-2 (16 tgt) | 36.8 |
| W17 | NO vs TEN | 8-119-1 (11 tgt) | 25.9 |