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Chris Olave

WRNO · bye 8DNA S

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Nova projection
205season budget (pts)
14.46
PPR / game
39
Nova rank
T6
tier
43.9
VORP
Market
20.4
ADP · 2.08
16-25
draft range
24
expert ECR
18-50
expert range
-18
Nova vs market rank
-18
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
20577floor P10353ceiling P90
77
floor (P10)
205
median (budget)
353
ceiling (P90)
22%
P(tier-1 season)
40%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR14-WR60
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.9x position norm · 40 games · 14.4 mean PPR
Market coverage
-7
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nova below marketEarly SOS 21.5Playoff SOS 18.7Bye 8

Chris Olave is Nova's 39th-ranked player overall (WR, NO), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 205 points this season, about 14.46 per game.

He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 20, ahead of Nova's 39.

Nova gives him about a 22% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 77 points (floor) to 353 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -7). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR39T643.922%WR14-WR6077.3-352.7
Half PPR44T531.621%WR15-WR6162.7-286.3
Standard57T722.620%WR15-WR6248.2-219.8
2QB / Superflex49T841.922%WR14-WR6077.3-352.7

Nova season stat lines14.2 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards933
Receptions77.5
Receiving TDs5.8
Rushing Yards1.3

2025 usage profile16 games

84%
snap share
9.8
targets / game
29%
team target share
41%
air yards share
0.725
WOPR (opportunity)
6.2
receptions / game
64%
catch rate
7.5
yards / target
115.1
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+5.9
TD pace vs position (9 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

2
broken tackles forced
-3
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
5
drops
4.9%
drop rate
94.7
passer rating when targeted
0
times pressured
0%
pressure rate faced
0
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
0
times hit
0%
bad throw rate

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs5.552% over5.8+5.5%
Receiving Yards1024.550% over933-8.9%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1NO vs ARI7-54-0 (13 tgt)12.4
W2NO vs SF6-54-0 (10 tgt)11.4
W3NO vs SEA10-57-0 (14 tgt)15.7
W4NO vs BUF3-20-1 (6 tgt)9.0
W5NO vs NYG7-59-0 (11 tgt)12.9
W6NO vs NE6-98-0 (10 tgt)15.8
W7NO vs CHI5-98-2 (7 tgt)26.8
W8NO vs TB8-63-0 (12 tgt), 1--3 rush14.0
W9NO vs LA3-57-0 (4 tgt)8.7
W10NO vs CAR5-104-1 (8 tgt)21.4
W12NO vs ATL9-70-0 (13 tgt)16.0
W13NO vs MIA4-47-1 (7 tgt)14.7
W14NO vs TB3-30-0 (5 tgt)6.0
W15NO vs CAR6-85-1 (9 tgt)20.5
W16NO vs NYJ10-148-2 (16 tgt)36.8
W17NO vs TEN8-119-1 (11 tgt)25.9