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Chris Godwin Jr.

WRTB · bye 10DNA B

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Nova projection
127season budget (pts)
10.88
PPR / game
160
Nova rank
T6
tier
-36.4
VORP
Market
78.3
ADP · 7.06
58-91
draft range
94
expert ECR
69-153
expert range
-79
Nova vs market rank
-79
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
12747floor P10211ceiling P90
47
floor (P10)
127
median (budget)
211
ceiling (P90)
5%
P(tier-1 season)
12%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR40-WR98
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.911x position norm · 33 games · 13.03 mean PPR
Early SOS 14.3Playoff SOS 18Bye 10

Chris Godwin Jr. is Nova's 160th-ranked player overall (WR, TB), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 127 points this season, about 10.88 per game.

He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 78, ahead of Nova's 160.

Nova gives him about a 5% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 47 points (floor) to 211 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR160T6-36.45%WR40-WR9847.3-211.3
Half PPR163T6-34.24%WR41-WR10038.1-170.2
Standard168T7-28.94%WR44-WR10228.9-129.2
2QB / Superflex170T8-38.45%WR40-WR9847.3-211.3

Nova season stat lines11.7 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards566.8
Receptions48.7
Receiving TDs3
Rushing Yards8.7

2025 usage profile9 games

71%
snap share
5.7
targets / game
18%
team target share
16%
air yards share
0.379
WOPR (opportunity)
3.7
receptions / game
65%
catch rate
7.1
yards / target
40.1
air yards / game
8
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.3
TD pace vs position (2 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

4
broken tackles forced
1
drops
2.2%
drop rate
89.3
passer rating when targeted

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs4.553% over3n/a
Receiving Yards699.550% over566.8-19%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W4TB vs PHI3-26-0 (10 tgt)5.6
W5TB vs SEA3-26-0 (4 tgt)5.6
W12TB vs LA2-9-0 (4 tgt)2.9
W13TB vs ARI3-78-0 (5 tgt)10.8
W14TB vs NO5-55-0 (8 tgt)10.5
W15TB vs ATL4-20-1 (5 tgt)14.0
W16TB vs CAR5-30-0 (6 tgt)8.0
W17TB vs MIA7-108-1 (8 tgt)23.8
W18TB vs CAR1-8-0 (1 tgt)1.8