Chris Godwin Jr.
WRTB · bye 10DNA BNova projection
127season budget (pts)
10.88
PPR / game
160
Nova rank
T6
tier
-36.4
VORP
Market
78.3
ADP · 7.06
58-91
draft range
94
expert ECR
69-153
expert range
-79
Nova vs market rank
-79
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
47
floor (P10)
127
median (budget)
211
ceiling (P90)
5%
P(tier-1 season)
12%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR40-WR98
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.911x position norm · 33 games · 13.03 mean PPR
Chris Godwin Jr. is Nova's 160th-ranked player overall (WR, TB), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 127 points this season, about 10.88 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 78, ahead of Nova's 160.
Nova gives him about a 5% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 47 points (floor) to 211 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 160 | T6 | -36.4 | 5% | WR40-WR98 | 47.3-211.3 |
| Half PPR | 163 | T6 | -34.2 | 4% | WR41-WR100 | 38.1-170.2 |
| Standard | 168 | T7 | -28.9 | 4% | WR44-WR102 | 28.9-129.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 170 | T8 | -38.4 | 5% | WR40-WR98 | 47.3-211.3 |
Nova season stat lines11.7 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 566.8 |
| Receptions | 48.7 |
| Receiving TDs | 3 |
| Rushing Yards | 8.7 |
2025 usage profile9 games
71%
snap share
5.7
targets / game
18%
team target share
16%
air yards share
0.379
WOPR (opportunity)
3.7
receptions / game
65%
catch rate
7.1
yards / target
40.1
air yards / game
8
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.3
TD pace vs position (2 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
4
broken tackles forced
1
drops
2.2%
drop rate
89.3
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 53% over | 3 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 699.5 | 50% over | 566.8 | -19% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W4 | TB vs PHI | 3-26-0 (10 tgt) | 5.6 |
| W5 | TB vs SEA | 3-26-0 (4 tgt) | 5.6 |
| W12 | TB vs LA | 2-9-0 (4 tgt) | 2.9 |
| W13 | TB vs ARI | 3-78-0 (5 tgt) | 10.8 |
| W14 | TB vs NO | 5-55-0 (8 tgt) | 10.5 |
| W15 | TB vs ATL | 4-20-1 (5 tgt) | 14.0 |
| W16 | TB vs CAR | 5-30-0 (6 tgt) | 8.0 |
| W17 | TB vs MIA | 7-108-1 (8 tgt) | 23.8 |
| W18 | TB vs CAR | 1-8-0 (1 tgt) | 1.8 |