CeeDee Lamb
WRDAL · bye 14DNA BNova projection
249season budget (pts)
16.88
PPR / game
16
Nova rank
T4
tier
87.4
VORP
Market
10.6
ADP · 1.11
6-16
draft range
8
expert ECR
7-18
expert range
-5
Nova vs market rank
-5
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
95
floor (P10)
249
median (budget)
431
ceiling (P90)
34%
P(tier-1 season)
53%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR9-WR46
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.963x position norm · 45 games · 19.28 mean PPR
Market coverage
-19
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
CeeDee Lamb is Nova's 16th-ranked player overall (WR, DAL), in Tier 4. Nova projects roughly 249 points this season, about 16.88 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 11, Nova 16).
Nova gives him about a 34% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 95 points (floor) to 431 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -19). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 16 | T4 | 87.4 | 34% | WR9-WR46 | 94.9-430.5 |
| Half PPR | 18 | T5 | 68.6 | 33% | WR9-WR46 | 77.7-352.3 |
| Standard | 20 | T6 | 53 | 32% | WR9-WR47 | 60.4-274 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 21 | T5 | 85.4 | 34% | WR9-WR46 | 94.9-430.5 |
Nova season stat lines14.7 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1190.2 |
| Receptions | 90.6 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 |
| Rushing Yards | 42.4 |
2025 usage profile13 games
73%
snap share
9
targets / game
25%
team target share
34%
air yards share
0.611
WOPR (opportunity)
5.8
receptions / game
64%
catch rate
9.2
yards / target
107.9
air yards / game
17
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
-1.4
TD equity (under pace, due)
+0.5
TD pace vs position (3 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
6
broken tackles forced
0
rush yards before contact / g
2
rush yards after contact / g
8
drops
5.7%
drop rate
92.9
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 49% over | 5.5 | -26.7% |
| Receiving Yards | 1199.5 | 50% over | 1190.2 | -0.8% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DAL vs PHI | 7-110-0 (13 tgt) | 18.0 |
| W2 | DAL vs NYG | 9-112-0 (11 tgt) | 20.2 |
| W7 | DAL vs WAS | 5-110-1 (8 tgt) | 22.0 |
| W8 | DAL vs DEN | 7-74-0 (10 tgt), 1-2 rush | 14.6 |
| W9 | DAL vs ARI | 7-85-0 (12 tgt) | 15.5 |
| W11 | DAL vs LV | 5-66-1 (7 tgt) | 17.6 |
| W12 | DAL vs PHI | 4-75-0 (11 tgt) | 11.5 |
| W13 | DAL vs KC | 7-112-1 (9 tgt) | 24.2 |
| W14 | DAL vs DET | 6-121-0 (8 tgt) | 18.1 |
| W15 | DAL vs MIN | 6-111-0 (10 tgt) | 17.1 |
| W16 | DAL vs LAC | 6-51-0 (7 tgt) | 11.1 |
| W17 | DAL vs WAS | 5-46-0 (10 tgt) | 9.6 |
| W18 | DAL vs NYG | 1-4-0 (1 tgt) | 1.4 |