Justin Jefferson
WRMIN · bye 6DNA BNova projection
223season budget (pts)
14.32
PPR / game
23
Nova rank
T5
tier
61.8
VORP
Market
10.1
ADP · 1.10
5-16
draft range
11
expert ECR
6-24
expert range
-13
Nova vs market rank
-13
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
87
floor (P10)
223
median (budget)
383
ceiling (P90)
27%
P(tier-1 season)
48%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR11-WR53
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.945x position norm · 44 games · 16.39 mean PPR
Market coverage
-18
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Justin Jefferson is Nova's 23rd-ranked player overall (WR, MIN), in Tier 5. Nova projects roughly 223 points this season, about 14.32 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 10, Nova 23).
Nova gives him about a 27% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 87 points (floor) to 383 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -18). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 23 | T5 | 61.8 | 27% | WR11-WR53 | 87-383.1 |
| Half PPR | 28 | T5 | 47.5 | 27% | WR11-WR53 | 71.1-313.3 |
| Standard | 33 | T7 | 36.4 | 26% | WR12-WR53 | 55.3-243.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 32 | T8 | 59.8 | 27% | WR11-WR53 | 87-383.1 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1127.8 |
| Receptions | 81.6 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.8 |
| Rushing Yards | 2.5 |
| Passing Yards | 6.1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
94%
snap share
8.3
targets / game
31%
team target share
40%
air yards share
0.741
WOPR (opportunity)
4.9
receptions / game
60%
catch rate
7.4
yards / target
84.6
air yards / game
19
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
-1.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
-1.3
TD pace vs position (2 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
5
broken tackles forced
2.5
rush yards before contact / g
1
rush yards after contact / g
3
drops
2.5%
drop rate
65
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 55% over | 4.8 | -26.2% |
| Receiving Yards | 1149.5 | 50% over | 1127.8 | -1.9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | MIN vs CHI | 4-44-1 (7 tgt), 1-4 rush | 14.8 |
| W2 | MIN vs ATL | 3-81-0 (6 tgt) | 11.1 |
| W3 | MIN vs CIN | 5-75-0 (7 tgt) | 12.5 |
| W4 | MIN vs PIT | 10-126-0 (11 tgt) | 22.6 |
| W5 | MIN vs CLE | 7-123-0 (11 tgt) | 19.3 |
| W7 | MIN vs PHI | 5-79-0 (10 tgt) | 12.9 |
| W8 | MIN vs LAC | 7-74-0 (11 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W9 | MIN vs DET | 6-47-1 (9 tgt) | 16.7 |
| W10 | MIN vs BAL | 4-37-0 (12 tgt) | 7.7 |
| W11 | MIN vs CHI | 5-61-0 (9 tgt) | 11.1 |
| W12 | MIN vs GB | 4-48-0 (6 tgt) | 8.8 |
| W13 | MIN vs SEA | 2-4-0 (6 tgt) | 2.4 |
| W14 | MIN vs WAS | 2-11-0 (4 tgt) | 3.1 |
| W15 | MIN vs DAL | 2-22-0 (8 tgt) | 4.2 |
| W16 | MIN vs NYG | 6-85-0 (8 tgt) | 14.5 |
| W17 | MIN vs DET | 4-30-0 (5 tgt) | 7.0 |
| W18 | MIN vs GB | 8-101-0 (11 tgt), 1-3 rush | 18.4 |