Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WRSEA · bye 11DNA BNova projection
279season budget (pts)
16.86
PPR / game
9
Nova rank
T3
tier
118
VORP
Market
5.8
ADP · 1.06
3-9
draft range
5
expert ECR
2-9
expert range
-3
Nova vs market rank
-3
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
107
floor (P10)
279
median (budget)
474
ceiling (P90)
41%
P(tier-1 season)
62%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR7-WR37
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 1.008x position norm · 51 games · 14.95 mean PPR
Market coverage
-10
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Nova's 9th-ranked player overall (WR, SEA), in Tier 3. Nova projects roughly 279 points this season, about 16.86 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 6, Nova 9).
Nova gives him about a 41% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 107 points (floor) to 474 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -10). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 9 | T3 | 118 | 41% | WR7-WR37 | 106.9-474.1 |
| Half PPR | 12 | T4 | 94.6 | 41% | WR7-WR37 | 87.8-389.6 |
| Standard | 15 | T5 | 74.4 | 40% | WR7-WR37 | 68.8-305.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 10 | T3 | 116 | 41% | WR7-WR37 | 106.9-474.1 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1327.5 |
| Receptions | 99.7 |
| Receiving TDs | 7.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 25.4 |
| Passing Yards | 10.1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
77%
snap share
9.6
targets / game
37%
team target share
50%
air yards share
0.905
WOPR (opportunity)
7
receptions / game
73%
catch rate
11
yards / target
107.8
air yards / game
0.4
carries / game
1%
team carry share
5.1
yards / carry
17
red-zone opportunities (6 TDs)
+2.6
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+6.7
TD pace vs position (10 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
4
broken tackles forced
3.2
rush yards before contact / g
4
rush yards after contact / g
5
drops
3.7%
drop rate
110.6
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 8.5 | 45% over | 7.4 | -12.9% |
| Receiving Yards | 1324.5 | 50% over | 1327.5 | +0.2% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | SEA vs SF | 9-124-0 (13 tgt) | 19.4 |
| W2 | SEA vs PIT | 8-103-0 (10 tgt) | 18.3 |
| W3 | SEA vs NO | 5-96-1 (6 tgt) | 20.6 |
| W4 | SEA vs ARI | 4-79-0 (5 tgt), 3-11 rush | 13.0 |
| W5 | SEA vs TB | 8-132-1 (9 tgt) | 27.2 |
| W6 | SEA vs JAX | 8-162-1 (13 tgt) | 30.2 |
| W7 | SEA vs HOU | 8-123-1 (14 tgt) | 26.3 |
| W9 | SEA vs WAS | 8-129-0 (9 tgt), 1-11 rush | 22.0 |
| W10 | SEA vs ARI | 5-93-1 (6 tgt) | 20.3 |
| W11 | SEA vs LA | 9-105-0 (12 tgt), 1-11 rush | 20.6 |
| W12 | SEA vs TEN | 8-167-2 (10 tgt), 1-4 rush | 37.1 |
| W13 | SEA vs MIN | 2-23-0 (4 tgt) | 4.3 |
| W14 | SEA vs ATL | 7-92-2 (10 tgt), 1--1 rush | 28.1 |
| W15 | SEA vs IND | 7-113-0 (9 tgt) | 18.3 |
| W16 | SEA vs LA | 8-96-1 (13 tgt) | 23.6 |
| W17 | SEA vs CAR | 9-72-0 (12 tgt) | 16.2 |
| W18 | SEA vs SF | 6-84-0 (8 tgt) | 14.4 |