J.K. Dobbins
RBDEN · bye 10DNA S+Nova projection
125season budget (pts)
11.36
PPR / game
157
Nova rank
T6
tier
-34
VORP
Market
95.9
ADP · 8.12
64-115
draft range
89
expert ECR
60-140
expert range
-59
Nova vs market rank
-59
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
35
floor (P10)
125
median (budget)
258
ceiling (P90)
9%
P(tier-1 season)
23%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB26-RB64
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.683x position norm · 24 games · 13.31 mean PPR
J.K. Dobbins is Nova's 157th-ranked player overall (RB, DEN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 125 points this season, about 11.36 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 96, ahead of Nova's 157.
Nova gives him about a 9% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 35 points (floor) to 258 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 157 | T6 | -34 | 9% | RB26-RB64 | 34.5-258.4 |
| Half PPR | 147 | T6 | -26.6 | 10% | RB25-RB62 | 32.2-241 |
| Standard | 140 | T7 | -17.9 | 10% | RB23-RB61 | 29.9-223.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 173 | T8 | -39.2 | 9% | RB26-RB64 | 34.5-258.4 |
Nova season stat lines11 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 77.3 |
| Receptions | 16.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 694.4 |
| Rushing TDs | 5.1 |
2025 usage profile10 games
51%
snap share
1.4
targets / game
5%
team target share
-1%
air yards share
0.061
WOPR (opportunity)
1.1
receptions / game
79%
catch rate
2.6
yards / target
-3
air yards / game
15.3
carries / game
57%
team carry share
5
yards / carry
20
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.6
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.9
TD pace vs position (4 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
9
broken tackles forced
39.8
rush yards before contact / g
37.4
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
10%
drop rate
75
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DEN vs TEN | 16-63-1 rush, 2-5 rec | 14.8 |
| W2 | DEN vs IND | 14-76-1 rush, 1-9 rec | 15.5 |
| W3 | DEN vs LAC | 11-83-1 rush, 1-0 rec | 15.3 |
| W4 | DEN vs CIN | 16-101-0 rush, 1-4 rec | 11.5 |
| W5 | DEN vs PHI | 20-79-1 rush, 1-5 rec | 15.4 |
| W6 | DEN vs NYJ | 14-40-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 4.0 |
| W7 | DEN vs NYG | 14-81-0 rush, 1--1 rec | 9.0 |
| W8 | DEN vs DAL | 15-111-0 rush, 2-10 rec | 14.1 |
| W9 | DEN vs HOU | 15-61-0 rush, 1--2 rec | 6.9 |
| W10 | DEN vs LV | 18-77-0 rush, 1-7 rec | 9.4 |