DeVonta Smith
WRPHI · bye 10DNA BNova projection
192season budget (pts)
12.35
PPR / game
54
Nova rank
T6
tier
30.7
VORP
Market
29.1
ADP · 3.05
23-38
draft range
36
expert ECR
21-61
expert range
-21
Nova vs market rank
-21
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
73
floor (P10)
192
median (budget)
325
ceiling (P90)
18%
P(tier-1 season)
35%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR18-WR64
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.948x position norm · 46 games · 13.67 mean PPR
Market coverage
-16
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
DeVonta Smith is Nova's 54th-ranked player overall (WR, PHI), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 192 points this season, about 12.35 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 29, ahead of Nova's 54.
Nova gives him about a 18% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 73 points (floor) to 325 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -16). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 54 | T6 | 30.7 | 18% | WR18-WR64 | 73.1-324.6 |
| Half PPR | 60 | T5 | 22.2 | 17% | WR18-WR64 | 59.9-265.6 |
| Standard | 66 | T7 | 16.9 | 17% | WR19-WR65 | 46.6-206.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 61 | T8 | 28.7 | 18% | WR18-WR64 | 73.1-324.6 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 900.7 |
| Receptions | 70 |
| Receiving TDs | 5.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
84%
snap share
6.6
targets / game
25%
team target share
32%
air yards share
0.594
WOPR (opportunity)
4.5
receptions / game
68%
catch rate
8.9
yards / target
79.7
air yards / game
12
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
-0.4
TD equity (under pace, due)
+0.7
TD pace vs position (4 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
3
drops
3.1%
drop rate
98.4
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 51% over | 5.4 | -1.8% |
| Receiving Yards | 1049.5 | 50% over | 900.7 | -14.2% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PHI vs DAL | 3-16-0 (3 tgt) | 4.6 |
| W2 | PHI vs KC | 4-53-0 (6 tgt) | 9.3 |
| W3 | PHI vs LA | 8-60-1 (9 tgt) | 20.0 |
| W4 | PHI vs TB | 2-29-0 (2 tgt) | 4.9 |
| W5 | PHI vs DEN | 8-114-0 (10 tgt) | 19.4 |
| W6 | PHI vs NYG | 4-49-0 (5 tgt) | 8.9 |
| W7 | PHI vs MIN | 9-183-1 (11 tgt) | 33.3 |
| W8 | PHI vs NYG | 6-84-0 (9 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W10 | PHI vs GB | 4-69-1 (7 tgt) | 16.9 |
| W11 | PHI vs DET | 1-8-0 (5 tgt) | 1.8 |
| W12 | PHI vs DAL | 6-89-0 (11 tgt) | 14.9 |
| W13 | PHI vs CHI | 5-48-0 (8 tgt) | 9.8 |
| W14 | PHI vs LAC | 4-37-0 (8 tgt) | 7.7 |
| W15 | PHI vs LV | 2-50-0 (2 tgt) | 7.0 |
| W16 | PHI vs WAS | 6-42-1 (8 tgt) | 16.2 |
| W17 | PHI vs BUF | 2-25-0 (5 tgt) | 4.5 |
| W18 | PHI vs WAS | 3-52-0 (4 tgt) | 8.2 |