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Sam LaPorta

TEDET · bye 6DNA S

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Nova projection
164season budget (pts)
12.12
PPR / game
62
Nova rank
T6
tier
24.5
VORP
Market
71.9
ADP · 6.12
55-87
draft range
80
expert ECR
56-105
expert range
+10
Nova vs market rank
+10
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
16462floor P10264ceiling P90
62
floor (P10)
164
median (budget)
264
ceiling (P90)
21%
P(tier-1 season)
39%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE8-TE28
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.899x position norm · 42 games · 12.4 mean PPR
Market coverage
+25
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Nova above marketEarly SOS 17.8Playoff SOS 9.7 (tough)Bye 6

Sam LaPorta is Nova's 62nd-ranked player overall (TE, DET), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 164 points this season, about 12.12 per game.

Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 72, Nova 62).

Nova gives him about a 21% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 62 points (floor) to 264 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +25). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.

Nova rank by format

FormatNova RankTierVORPP(Tier-1)Finish rangeTotal P10-P90
PPR62T624.521%TE8-TE2861.6-264.4
Half PPR64T519.622%TE7-TE2850.4-216.4
Standard67T71624%TE7-TE2739.3-168.4
2QB / Superflex68T824.521%TE8-TE2861.6-264.4

Nova season stat lines13.5 expected games

StatNova projection
Receiving Yards683.3
Receptions59.2
Receiving TDs5.9
Rushing Yards1.1

2025 usage profile9 games

91%
snap share
5.4
targets / game
19%
team target share
18%
air yards share
0.399
WOPR (opportunity)
4.4
receptions / game
82%
catch rate
10
yards / target
30.8
air yards / game
6
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
+0.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.3
TD pace vs position (3 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

5
broken tackles forced
0
drops
0%
drop rate
116.4
passer rating when targeted

Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection

StatDK lineMarket leanNovaΔ%
Receiving TDs4.554% over5.9n/a
Receiving Yards624.550% over683.3+9.4%

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

WeekOppStat linePPR
W1DET vs GB6-79-0 (9 tgt)13.9
W2DET vs CHI3-26-0 (4 tgt)5.6
W3DET vs BAL4-33-0 (4 tgt)7.3
W4DET vs CLE3-39-0 (4 tgt)6.9
W5DET vs CIN5-92-1 (6 tgt)20.2
W6DET vs KC5-55-1 (6 tgt)16.5
W7DET vs TB3-15-0 (3 tgt)4.5
W9DET vs MIN6-97-1 (8 tgt)21.7
W10DET vs WAS5-53-0 (5 tgt)10.3