Josh Downs
WRIND · bye 13DNA SNova projection
156season budget (pts)
10.03
PPR / game
111
Nova rank
T6
tier
-5.9
VORP
Market
84.7
ADP · 8.01
66-99
draft range
127
expert ECR
109-173
expert range
-24
Nova vs market rank
-24
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
61
floor (P10)
156
median (budget)
267
ceiling (P90)
10%
P(tier-1 season)
22%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR27-WR79
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S · Consistent
volatility 0.842x position norm · 47 games · 10.19 mean PPR
Josh Downs is Nova's 111th-ranked player overall (WR, IND), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 156 points this season, about 10.03 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 85, ahead of Nova's 111.
Nova gives him about a 10% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 61 points (floor) to 267 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 111 | T6 | -5.9 | 10% | WR27-WR79 | 60.5-266.6 |
| Half PPR | 122 | T6 | -11.4 | 9% | WR29-WR82 | 48-211.8 |
| Standard | 131 | T7 | -13.8 | 7% | WR32-WR86 | 35.6-157 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 121 | T8 | -7.9 | 10% | WR27-WR79 | 60.5-266.6 |
Nova season stat lines15.6 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 681.4 |
| Receptions | 64.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 3.9 |
| Rushing Yards | 3.2 |
2025 usage profile16 games
59%
snap share
5.5
targets / game
18%
team target share
17%
air yards share
0.379
WOPR (opportunity)
3.6
receptions / game
66%
catch rate
6.4
yards / target
41.2
air yards / game
15
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.9
TD pace vs position (4 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
1
broken tackles forced
-2
rush yards before contact / g
1
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
4%
drop rate
86.9
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND vs MIA | 2-12-0 (3 tgt) | 3.2 |
| W2 | IND vs DEN | 6-51-0 (8 tgt) | 11.1 |
| W3 | IND vs TEN | 2-34-0 (3 tgt) | 5.4 |
| W4 | IND vs LA | 4-24-0 (5 tgt) | 6.4 |
| W5 | IND vs LV | 6-54-0 (8 tgt) | 11.4 |
| W6 | IND vs ARI | 6-42-1 (7 tgt) | 16.2 |
| W8 | IND vs TEN | 3-39-1 (3 tgt) | 12.9 |
| W9 | IND vs PIT | 6-57-1 (9 tgt) | 17.7 |
| W10 | IND vs ATL | 1-3-0 (2 tgt) | 1.3 |
| W12 | IND vs KC | 2-10-0 (6 tgt) | 3.0 |
| W13 | IND vs HOU | 2-44-0 (6 tgt) | 6.4 |
| W14 | IND vs JAX | 4-23-0 (5 tgt) | 6.3 |
| W15 | IND vs SEA | 3-13-1 (5 tgt) | 10.3 |
| W16 | IND vs SF | 5-65-0 (9 tgt), 1-3 rush | 11.8 |
| W17 | IND vs JAX | 2-34-0 (5 tgt) | 5.4 |
| W18 | IND vs HOU | 4-61-0 (4 tgt), 1--5 rush | 9.6 |