Jaylen Warren
RBPIT · bye 9DNA S+Nova projection
163season budget (pts)
10.33
PPR / game
85
Nova rank
T6
tier
5.2
VORP
Market
65.1
ADP · 6.05
57-73
draft range
72
expert ECR
63-95
expert range
-20
Nova vs market rank
-20
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
43
floor (P10)
163
median (budget)
331
ceiling (P90)
17%
P(tier-1 season)
36%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB17-RB55
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.777x position norm · 48 games · 11.2 mean PPR
Jaylen Warren is Nova's 85th-ranked player overall (RB, PIT), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 163 points this season, about 10.33 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 65, ahead of Nova's 85.
Nova gives him about a 17% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 43 points (floor) to 331 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 85 | T6 | 5.2 | 17% | RB17-RB55 | 43.4-331.2 |
| Half PPR | 88 | T6 | 2 | 16% | RB18-RB56 | 38.3-292.8 |
| Standard | 93 | T7 | 0 | 15% | RB19-RB56 | 33.3-254.3 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 98 | T8 | 0 | 17% | RB17-RB55 | 43.4-331.2 |
Nova season stat lines15.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 291.8 |
| Receptions | 38.2 |
| Rushing Yards | 694.8 |
| Rushing TDs | 3.7 |
2025 usage profile16 games
51%
snap share
2.8
targets / game
10%
team target share
-5%
air yards share
0.112
WOPR (opportunity)
2.5
receptions / game
89%
catch rate
7.4
yards / target
-7.1
air yards / game
13.2
carries / game
58%
team carry share
4.5
yards / carry
45
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
-0.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
+3.1
TD pace vs position (8 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
32
broken tackles forced
28.8
rush yards before contact / g
31.1
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
1.2%
drop rate
97.5
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PIT vs NYJ | 11-37-0 rush, 2-22 rec | 13.9 |
| W2 | PIT vs SEA | 14-48-0 rush, 4-86 rec | 17.4 |
| W3 | PIT vs NE | 18-47-0 rush, 5-34 rec | 13.1 |
| W6 | PIT vs CLE | 11-52-0 rush, 2-11 rec | 8.3 |
| W7 | PIT vs CIN | 16-127-0 rush, 4-31 rec | 19.8 |
| W8 | PIT vs GB | 13-62-0 rush, 2-11 rec | 9.3 |
| W9 | PIT vs IND | 16-31-2 rush, 2--2 rec | 16.9 |
| W10 | PIT vs LAC | 14-70-0 rush, 2-21 rec | 11.1 |
| W11 | PIT vs CIN | 10-62-0 rush, 2-5 rec | 8.7 |
| W12 | PIT vs CHI | 18-68-1 rush | 12.8 |
| W13 | PIT vs BUF | 10-35-1 rush, 2-9 rec | 12.4 |
| W14 | PIT vs BAL | 8-13-0 rush, 3-49 rec | 15.2 |
| W15 | PIT vs MIA | 12-33-0 rush, 3-15 rec | 7.8 |
| W16 | PIT vs DET | 14-143-2 rush, 2-8 rec | 29.1 |
| W17 | PIT vs CLE | 12-64-0 rush | 6.4 |
| W18 | PIT vs BAL | 14-66-0 rush, 5-33 rec | 14.9 |