Tyler Warren
TEIND · bye 13DNA S+Nova projection
188season budget (pts)
11.35
PPR / game
34
Nova rank
T6
tier
49.2
VORP
Market
55.0
ADP · 5.07
37-70
draft range
65
expert ECR
34-86
expert range
+22
Nova vs market rank
+22
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
69
floor (P10)
188
median (budget)
305
ceiling (P90)
29%
P(tier-1 season)
49%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE6-TE24
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
S+ · Elite consistency
volatility 0.706x position norm · 17 games · 11.09 mean PPR
Market coverage
-6
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Tyler Warren is Nova's 34th-ranked player overall (TE, IND), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 188 points this season, about 11.35 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 55, well behind Nova's 34, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 29% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 69 points (floor) to 305 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). Nova sits below the Vegas market on him (divergence -6). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 34 | T6 | 49.2 | 29% | TE6-TE24 | 68.9-304.7 |
| Half PPR | 40 | T5 | 36.1 | 29% | TE6-TE24 | 55-243.3 |
| Standard | 50 | T7 | 24.2 | 28% | TE6-TE24 | 41.1-181.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 41 | T8 | 49.2 | 29% | TE6-TE24 | 68.9-304.7 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 812.1 |
| Receptions | 75.7 |
| Receiving TDs | 4 |
| Rushing Yards | 8.1 |
| Rushing TDs | 1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
84%
snap share
6.6
targets / game
22%
team target share
15%
air yards share
0.425
WOPR (opportunity)
4.5
receptions / game
68%
catch rate
7.3
yards / target
35.4
air yards / game
0.4
carries / game
1%
team carry share
1.3
yards / carry
27
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
-0.1
TD equity (under pace, due)
+1.9
TD pace vs position (5 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
4
broken tackles forced
1
rush yards before contact / g
0.6
rush yards after contact / g
2
drops
1.8%
drop rate
92.8
passer rating when targeted
1
times pressured
100%
pressure rate faced
0
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
1
times hit
0%
bad throw rate
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 45% over | 4 | -27.3% |
| Receiving Yards | 724.5 | 50% over | 812.1 | +12.1% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND vs MIA | 7-76-0 (9 tgt), 1-3 rush | 14.9 |
| W2 | IND vs DEN | 4-79-0 (7 tgt) | 11.9 |
| W3 | IND vs TEN | 3-38-0 (5 tgt) | 6.8 |
| W4 | IND vs LA | 5-70-0 (6 tgt), 2-3 rush | 18.3 |
| W5 | IND vs LV | 4-44-1 (4 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W6 | IND vs ARI | 6-63-1 (9 tgt) | 18.3 |
| W7 | IND vs LAC | 4-69-1 (5 tgt) | 16.9 |
| W8 | IND vs TEN | 4-53-0 (5 tgt) | 9.3 |
| W9 | IND vs PIT | 5-26-0 (7 tgt) | 7.6 |
| W10 | IND vs ATL | 8-99-0 (10 tgt) | 17.9 |
| W12 | IND vs KC | 5-45-0 (7 tgt) | 9.5 |
| W13 | IND vs HOU | 3-22-1 (4 tgt) | 11.2 |
| W14 | IND vs JAX | 2-15-0 (6 tgt), 1-2 rush | 3.7 |
| W15 | IND vs SEA | 3-19-0 (6 tgt) | 4.9 |
| W16 | IND vs SF | 3-30-0 (9 tgt) | 6.0 |
| W17 | IND vs JAX | 5-43-0 (5 tgt) | 9.3 |
| W18 | IND vs HOU | 5-26-0 (8 tgt) | 7.6 |