Divergence Watch
The season betting market against Nova’s season stat projections, ranked by the Divergence Score: the gap scaled by how uncertain that stat’s projections really are and how reliable the player is, on a ±100 range. Positive = Nova more bullish than Vegas (buy-signal shape); negative = fade shape.
ℹCoverage grows as the season betting-market board rotates (47 players so far, refreshed Mon/Wed/Fri). Receiving-yards projections beat the carryover baseline in both out-of-sample backtests; TD and rushing comparisons are directional only and flagged as such. Season TD lines are also shaded by books, so small TD deltas mean little.
Vegas side: season betting market · Nova side: Nova’s own projections · generated 2026-07-04
What do these terms mean?
Divergence ★
Nova's disagreement with the market on a plus/minus 100 scale. Positive means Nova is higher than Vegas and the experts, negative means lower. Where the edge lives.
σ (proj. sigma) ★
How much Nova's projection for this position and stat typically varies. It scales the Divergence Score, so the same disagreement counts for less on a naturally noisy stat.
Residual
The part of an outcome the market did not already price in. Nova avoids double-counting effects Vegas has already baked into a line.
VORP ★
Value Over Replacement Player: projected points above a freely-available replacement at the same position. Nova's core measure of real value.
★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.
| Player | Pos | Stat | DK Line | Market Lean | Nova | Δ | Δ% | Score | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | WR | Receiving Yards | 999.5 | 50% over | 776.1 | -223.4 | -22.4% | -46.1 | validated |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | Receiving Yards | 724.5 | 51% over | 940.8 | +216.3 | +29.9% | +42.4 | validated |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | Receiving Yards | 949.5 | 50% over | 751.2 | -198.3 | -20.9% | -41.6 | validated |
| Tyler Warren | TE | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 45% over | 4 | -1.5 | -27.3% | -37.3 | directional |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 49% over | 5.5 | -2 | -26.7% | -36.7 | directional |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 54% over | 6.1 | +1.6 | +35.6% | +34.5 | directional |
| Christian Watson | WR | Receiving Yards | 799.5 | 49% over | 609.6 | -189.9 | -23.8% | -34.4 | validated |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 54% over | 5.9 | +1.4 | +31.1% | +34 | directional |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 55% over | 4.8 | -1.7 | -26.2% | -32.1 | directional |
| George Pickens | WR | Receiving Yards | 999.5 | 50% over | 1178.7 | +179.2 | +17.9% | +31.5 | validated |
| Christian Watson | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 44% over | 4.8 | -1.7 | -26.2% | -29.7 | directional |
| Chris Godwin | WR | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 53% over | 3 | -1.5 | -33.3% | -29.6 | directional |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | Receiving Yards | 1049.5 | 50% over | 900.7 | -148.8 | -14.2% | -29.6 | validated |
| Chris Godwin | WR | Receiving Yards | 699.5 | 50% over | 566.8 | -132.7 | -19% | -27.6 | validated |
| Mike Evans | WR | Receiving Yards | 849.5 | 50% over | 706.7 | -142.8 | -16.8% | -26.6 | validated |
| Tyler Warren | TE | Receiving Yards | 724.5 | 50% over | 812.1 | +87.6 | +12.1% | +24.6 | validated |
| Puka Nacua | WR | Receiving Yards | 1324.5 | 50% over | 1445.7 | +121.2 | +9.2% | +23.2 | validated |
| George Kittle | TE | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 54% over | 6.5 | +1 | +18.2% | +22.9 | directional |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 56% over | 5.6 | +1.1 | +24.4% | +22.5 | directional |
| A.J. Brown | WR | Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 44% over | 6.3 | -1.2 | -16% | -21.5 | directional |
| A.J. Brown | WR | Receiving Yards | 1124.5 | 50% over | 1012.3 | -112.2 | -10% | -21.1 | validated |
| Zay Flowers | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 44% over | 4.5 | -1 | -18.2% | -20.2 | directional |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Receiving TDs | 8.5 | 45% over | 7.4 | -1.1 | -12.9% | -19.9 | directional |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Rushing Yards | 1174.5 | 50% over | 1310.8 | +136.3 | +11.6% | +19.8 | directional |
| Chris Olave | WR | Receiving Yards | 1024.5 | 50% over | 933 | -91.5 | -8.9% | -19.5 | validated |
| Drake London | WR | Receiving Yards | 1149.5 | 50% over | 1035.7 | -113.8 | -9.9% | -19.5 | validated |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Receiving Yards | 449.5 | 50% over | 506.3 | +56.8 | +12.6% | +18.9 | validated |
| Trey McBride | TE | Receiving Yards | 999.5 | 50% over | 1077 | +77.5 | +7.8% | +18.9 | validated |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 53% over | 6.3 | +0.8 | +14.5% | +16.4 | directional |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | Receiving Yards | 624.5 | 50% over | 683.3 | +58.8 | +9.4% | +16.2 | validated |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Rushing TDs | 8.5 | 51% over | 7.2 | -1.3 | -15.3% | -15.9 | directional |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Receiving TDs | 9.5 | 51% over | 10.3 | +0.8 | +8.4% | +15.8 | directional |
| Zay Flowers | WR | Receiving Yards | 974.5 | 50% over | 1045.9 | +71.4 | +7.3% | +15.2 | validated |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Receiving Yards | 524.5 | 50% over | 461.9 | -62.6 | -11.9% | -14.9 | validated |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Receiving Yards | 824.5 | 50% over | 747 | -77.5 | -9.4% | -14.6 | validated |
| Brock Bowers | TE | Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 41% over | 6.7 | -0.8 | -10.7% | -14.5 | directional |
| DJ Moore | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 44% over | 5.6 | -0.9 | -13.8% | -14.3 | directional |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Rushing Yards | 974.5 | 48% over | 881.2 | -93.3 | -9.6% | -14.2 | directional |
| Rome Odunze | WR | Receiving Yards | 799.5 | 50% over | 720.8 | -78.7 | -9.8% | -13.9 | validated |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 37% over | 3.7 | -0.8 | -17.8% | -13.8 | directional |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | Receiving Yards | 849.5 | 50% over | 913.4 | +63.9 | +7.5% | +13.8 | validated |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | Receiving TDs | 3.5 | 45% over | 2.7 | -0.8 | -22.9% | -13.8 | directional |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | Receiving Yards | 574.5 | 50% over | 518.1 | -56.4 | -9.8% | -13.8 | validated |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | Receiving Yards | 524.5 | 50% over | 574.2 | +49.7 | +9.5% | +13.3 | validated |
| Drake London | WR | Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 45% over | 6.7 | -0.8 | -10.7% | -13.1 | directional |
| George Kittle | TE | Receiving Yards | 724.5 | 50% over | 775.5 | +51 | +7% | +13 | validated |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Receiving Yards | 574.5 | 50% over | 605.6 | +31.1 | +5.4% | +12.4 | validated |
| Colston Loveland | TE | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 49% over | 6.2 | +0.7 | +12.7% | +12.3 | directional |
| Davante Adams | WR | Receiving Yards | 774.5 | 50% over | 841.6 | +67.1 | +8.7% | +12.2 | validated |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | Receiving Yards | 799.5 | 50% over | 854.1 | +54.6 | +6.8% | +12.1 | validated |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Receiving TDs | 3.5 | 47% over | 3 | -0.5 | -14.3% | -12 | directional |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 47% over | 5.1 | +0.6 | +13.3% | +11.9 | directional |
| Tee Higgins | WR | Receiving Yards | 874.5 | 50% over | 807.8 | -66.7 | -7.6% | -11.4 | validated |
| Colston Loveland | TE | Receiving Yards | 799.5 | 50% over | 743.4 | -56.1 | -7% | -10.9 | validated |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Receiving Yards | 949.5 | 50% over | 998.2 | +48.7 | +5.1% | +10.4 | validated |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 48% over | 5.9 | -0.6 | -9.2% | -9.9 | directional |
| Tee Higgins | WR | Receiving TDs | 8.5 | 46% over | 9.1 | +0.6 | +7.1% | +9.8 | directional |
| Mike Evans | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 48% over | 7 | +0.5 | +7.7% | +9.1 | directional |
| DK Metcalf | WR | Receiving Yards | 824.5 | 50% over | 865.5 | +41 | +5% | +9.1 | validated |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | Receiving TDs | 10.5 | 45% over | 9.9 | -0.6 | -5.7% | -9 | directional |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 47% over | 6.1 | -0.4 | -6.2% | -8.7 | directional |
| Brock Bowers | TE | Receiving Yards | 899.5 | 50% over | 936.3 | +36.8 | +4.1% | +8.7 | validated |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | Receiving Yards | 1324.5 | 50% over | 1379.8 | +55.3 | +4.2% | +8.7 | validated |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 52% over | 4.9 | +0.4 | +8.9% | +8.5 | directional |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 49% over | 6.9 | +0.4 | +6.2% | +8.2 | directional |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Receiving Yards | 1249.5 | 50% over | 1285.3 | +35.8 | +2.9% | +7.5 | validated |
| Puka Nacua | WR | Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 55% over | 7.1 | -0.4 | -5.3% | -7.4 | directional |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 56% over | 4.8 | +0.3 | +6.7% | +7.3 | directional |
| Jameson Williams | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 48% over | 5.9 | +0.4 | +7.3% | +6.9 | directional |
| Rome Odunze | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 55% over | 5.1 | -0.4 | -7.3% | -6.8 | directional |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 53% over | 6.8 | +0.3 | +4.6% | +6.4 | directional |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | Receiving Yards | 549.5 | 50% over | 571.7 | +22.2 | +4% | +6.4 | validated |
| Chris Olave | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 52% over | 5.8 | +0.3 | +5.5% | +6.2 | directional |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 52% over | 4.2 | -0.3 | -6.7% | -5.7 | directional |
| DJ Moore | WR | Receiving Yards | 824.5 | 51% over | 791.5 | -33 | -4% | -5.5 | validated |
| George Pickens | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 54% over | 6.2 | -0.3 | -4.6% | -5.2 | directional |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | Receiving Yards | 1149.5 | 50% over | 1127.8 | -21.7 | -1.9% | -4.5 | validated |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 45% over | 4.7 | +0.2 | +4.4% | +4.3 | directional |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Receiving Yards | 574.5 | 50% over | 564.3 | -10.2 | -1.8% | -4.2 | validated |
| Jameson Williams | WR | Receiving Yards | 899.5 | 50% over | 920.7 | +21.2 | +2.4% | +3.8 | validated |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 43% over | 5.7 | +0.2 | +3.6% | +3.6 | directional |
| Davante Adams | WR | Receiving TDs | 9.5 | 46% over | 9.7 | +0.2 | +2.1% | +3.5 | directional |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Rushing TDs | 8.5 | 53% over | 8.2 | -0.3 | -3.5% | -3.5 | directional |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | Receiving Yards | 649.5 | 50% over | 664.6 | +15.1 | +2.3% | +3.3 | validated |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | Receiving Yards | 899.5 | 50% over | 918.7 | +19.2 | +2.1% | +3.3 | validated |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Rushing TDs | 12.5 | 47% over | 12.8 | +0.3 | +2.4% | +3 | directional |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Receiving Yards | 774.5 | 50% over | 761.1 | -13.4 | -1.7% | -2.8 | validated |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 44% over | 4.4 | -0.1 | -2.2% | -2.5 | directional |
| Trey McBride | TE | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 47% over | 6.4 | -0.1 | -1.5% | -2.2 | directional |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | Receiving TDs | 3.5 | 60% over | 3.6 | +0.1 | +2.9% | +2.2 | directional |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Rushing Yards | 1199.5 | 50% over | 1182.8 | -16.7 | -1.4% | -2.1 | directional |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 47% over | 5.6 | +0.1 | +1.8% | +2.1 | directional |
| DK Metcalf | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 48% over | 5.6 | +0.1 | +1.8% | +2.1 | directional |
| Nico Collins | WR | Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 48% over | 6.4 | -0.1 | -1.5% | -2 | directional |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 51% over | 5.4 | -0.1 | -1.8% | -2 | directional |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | Receiving Yards | 1199.5 | 50% over | 1190.2 | -9.3 | -0.8% | -1.9 | validated |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | Receiving Yards | 624.5 | 50% over | 629.5 | +5 | +0.8% | +0.9 | validated |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Receiving Yards | 1324.5 | 50% over | 1327.5 | +3 | +0.2% | +0.6 | validated |
| Nico Collins | WR | Receiving Yards | 1074.5 | 50% over | 1076.1 | +1.6 | +0.1% | +0.3 | validated |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | Receiving Yards | 774.5 | 50% over | 773.8 | -0.7 | -0.1% | -0.2 | validated |