What-If

Stop guessing. Stack scenarios on a player and watch the whole distribution move, not just the median. Each variable shows its own contribution, and compare mode runs the same scenario stack against two players at once.

⚠FIXTURE MODE. Players and baseline distributions come from the synthetic test slate. This page flips to live weekly distributions at Week 1.

ℹScenario effects come from the historical signal library (measured within-player over six seasons) where a matching effect exists, and are labeled ~est where they are directional estimates not yet measured. As with all raw historical splits, Vegas already prices part of each one, so treat these as the shape of the effect, not a betting edge.

What do these terms mean?

Floor (P10) ★

A low-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish below this. The safe-case number.

Ceiling (P90) ★

A high-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish above this. The upside number.

Boom / Bust ★

How wide the range of likely outcomes is. Boom = big-upside weeks, bust = weeks that sink you.

Signal

A historical situational effect (for example wind, dome, big favorite) measured across six seasons.

Residual

The part of an outcome the market did not already price in. Nova avoids double-counting effects Vegas has already baked into a line.

Proj PPG ★

Nova's projected fantasy points per game.

★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.

Presets:

Toggle scenarios for Baker Mayfield’s position (QB). Compare mode applies the same stack to both players.

Baker Mayfield

Baseline

10.6 / 19.5 / 30.5 · boom 48% · bust 8%