Floor / Ceiling Archetypes

Every player’s season projection is really a distribution, not a single number. This board sorts by the shape of that distribution instead of the middle of it: who’s the safest floor, who has the real ceiling, and who’s the true boom/bust swing.

What do these terms mean?

Floor (P10) ★

A low-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish below this. The safe-case number.

Ceiling (P90) ★

A high-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish above this. The upside number.

Spread ★

Ceiling minus floor. A wide spread means a boom-or-bust player, a narrow one means a steady player.

Boom / Bust ★

How wide the range of likely outcomes is. Boom = big-upside weeks, bust = weeks that sink you.

Tier-1 % ★

Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.

DNA ★

Week-to-week volatility grade from 3 seasons of game logs, graded against position peers so low scorers are not punished. The scale, steadiest to swingiest: S+ elite consistency, S consistent, B baseline, V variable, H high variance, X extreme boom/bust.

CoV

Coefficient of variation (weekly standard deviation divided by mean). Lower means steadier week to week, higher means more volatile.

★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.

⚠Bands are backtest-calibrated probability ranges, not guarantees. Roughly 80% of simulated outcomes land between the P10 (floor) and P90 (ceiling) shown here (coverage-calibrated: the 80% band hit 83.2% in the 2024 out-of-sample test). Only players with a simulated PPR band qualify for this board (383 of 970 players this format).

Sorted by P10 season total (worst-case-ish outcome), highest first. The safe, consistent picks. · 40 players shown

Player	Pos	Floor (P10)	Ceiling (P90)	Spread	Tier-1 %	DNA
Josh AllenBUF	QB	128	635	507	41%	X
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR	122	534	413	49%	X
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR	118	519	401	45%	B
Puka NacuaLA	WR	116	535	420	47%	B
Drake MayeNE	QB	112	543	431	29%	S
Jalen HurtsPHI	QB	111	551	440	31%	B
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR	107	474	367	41%	B
Bo NixDEN	QB	107	550	443	31%	B
Caleb WilliamsCHI	QB	103	522	419	28%	V
Baker MayfieldTB	QB	103	506	403	26%	S
Lamar JacksonBAL	QB	102	535	433	28%	V
Jared GoffDET	QB	100	504	404	26%	B
Trevor LawrenceJAX	QB	100	488	388	24%	B
Justin HerbertLAC	QB	98	491	393	23%	B
Brock PurdySF	QB	96	457	361	19%	V
Patrick MahomesKC	QB	95	479	384	23%	S+
Jahmyr GibbsDET	RB	95	670	575	54%	H
CeeDee LambDAL	WR	95	431	336	34%	B
Trey McBrideARI	TE	95	430	335	51%	V
Matthew StaffordLA	QB	95	449	354	19%	S
Jaxson DartNYG	QB	93	456	363	20%	ROOKIE/NA
Jordan LoveGB	QB	92	448	356	19%	S
Dak PrescottDAL	QB	90	433	343	17%	V
Bijan RobinsonATL	RB	89	660	570	51%	B
C.J. StroudHOU	QB	89	426	337	16%	B
Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	87	383	296	27%	B
George PickensDAL	WR	87	390	303	27%	V
Sam DarnoldSEA	QB	85	405	320	13%	X
Brock BowersLV	TE	84	367	283	40%	V
Joe BurrowCIN	QB	84	414	330	14%	H
Drake LondonATL	WR	84	386	303	27%	H
Nico CollinsHOU	WR	82	376	294	25%	B
Zay FlowersBAL	WR	82	378	297	25%	B
A.J. BrownNE	WR	82	360	278	24%	B
Jayden DanielsWAS	QB	81	404	324	14%	V
Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR	80	362	281	23%	S
Bryce YoungCAR	QB	80	389	308	12%	V
Davante AdamsLA	WR	79	362	283	23%	V
De'Von AchaneMIA	RB	79	586	507	45%	H
Chris OlaveNO	WR	77	353	275	22%	S