Jake Ferguson
TEDAL · bye 14DNA BNova projection
153season budget (pts)
9.63
PPR / game
71
Nova rank
T6
tier
17
VORP
Market
114.8
ADP · 10.07
74-147
draft range
123
expert ECR
105-157
expert range
+49
Nova vs market rank
+49
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
58
floor (P10)
153
median (budget)
260
ceiling (P90)
20%
P(tier-1 season)
38%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE8-TE30
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.926x position norm · 48 games · 9.78 mean PPR
Market coverage
+10
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Jake Ferguson is Nova's 71st-ranked player overall (TE, DAL), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 153 points this season, about 9.63 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 115, well behind Nova's 71, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 20% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 58 points (floor) to 260 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). Nova projects him above the Vegas market here (divergence +10). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 71 | T6 | 17 | 20% | TE8-TE30 | 58.2-260 |
| Half PPR | 74 | T6 | 7.1 | 18% | TE9-TE31 | 45.3-202.1 |
| Standard | 101 | T7 | -1.5 | 16% | TE10-TE32 | 32.3-144.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 77 | T8 | 17 | 20% | TE8-TE30 | 58.2-260 |
Nova season stat lines15.9 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 574.2 |
| Receptions | 69.3 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.8 |
2025 usage profile17 games
67%
snap share
6
targets / game
17%
team target share
9%
air yards share
0.31
WOPR (opportunity)
4.8
receptions / game
80%
catch rate
5.9
yards / target
27.9
air yards / game
25
red-zone opportunities (7 TDs)
+2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.9
TD pace vs position (8 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
6
broken tackles forced
0
rush yards before contact / g
1
rush yards after contact / g
2
drops
1.3%
drop rate
94.3
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 56% over | 4.8 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 524.5 | 50% over | 574.2 | +9.5% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DAL vs PHI | 5-23-0 (6 tgt) | 7.3 |
| W2 | DAL vs NYG | 9-78-0 (12 tgt) | 16.8 |
| W3 | DAL vs CHI | 13-82-0 (14 tgt) | 21.2 |
| W4 | DAL vs GB | 7-40-1 (7 tgt) | 17.0 |
| W5 | DAL vs NYJ | 7-49-2 (9 tgt) | 23.9 |
| W6 | DAL vs CAR | 3-33-1 (3 tgt) | 12.3 |
| W7 | DAL vs WAS | 7-29-2 (7 tgt) | 21.9 |
| W8 | DAL vs DEN | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W9 | DAL vs ARI | 5-50-0 (7 tgt) | 8.0 |
| W11 | DAL vs LV | 4-16-1 (5 tgt) | 11.6 |
| W12 | DAL vs PHI | 5-60-0 (6 tgt), 1-1 rush | 11.1 |
| W13 | DAL vs KC | 5-36-0 (6 tgt) | 8.6 |
| W14 | DAL vs DET | 5-58-0 (7 tgt) | 10.8 |
| W15 | DAL vs MIN | 2-16-0 (4 tgt) | 3.6 |
| W16 | DAL vs LAC | 3-19-0 (4 tgt) | 4.9 |
| W17 | DAL vs WAS | 1-6-1 (2 tgt) | 7.6 |
| W18 | DAL vs NYG | 1-5-0 (2 tgt) | 1.5 |