Derrick Henry
RBBAL · bye 13DNA VNova projection
248season budget (pts)
14.99
PPR / game
14
Nova rank
T4
tier
91.5
VORP
Market
15.5
ADP · 2.03
8-24
draft range
14
expert ECR
8-28
expert range
+2
Nova vs market rank
+2
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
71
floor (P10)
248
median (budget)
498
ceiling (P90)
37%
P(tier-1 season)
60%
P(tier-2 or better)
RB8-RB37
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
V · Variable
volatility 1.043x position norm · 51 games · 16.91 mean PPR
Derrick Henry is Nova's 14th-ranked player overall (RB, BAL), in Tier 4. Nova projects roughly 248 points this season, about 14.99 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 16, Nova 14).
Nova gives him about a 37% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 71 points (floor) to 498 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 14 | T4 | 91.5 | 37% | RB8-RB37 | 70.6-497.9 |
| Half PPR | 10 | T4 | 98.9 | 41% | RB7-RB35 | 68.2-481.2 |
| Standard | 4 | T4 | 107.7 | 45% | RB6-RB32 | 65.8-464.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 18 | T5 | 86.3 | 37% | RB8-RB37 | 70.6-497.9 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 154.8 |
| Receptions | 16.8 |
| Rushing Yards | 1367.6 |
| Rushing TDs | 12.9 |
| Passing Yards | 2.4 |
2025 usage profile17 games
55%
snap share
1.2
targets / game
5%
team target share
0%
air yards share
0.075
WOPR (opportunity)
0.9
receptions / game
71%
catch rate
7.1
yards / target
0.7
air yards / game
18.1
carries / game
60%
team carry share
5.2
yards / carry
65
red-zone opportunities (10 TDs)
+2
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+10.8
TD pace vs position (16 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
13
broken tackles forced
53.1
rush yards before contact / g
40.7
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
7.7%
drop rate
76.5
passer rating when targeted
0
times pressured
0%
pressure rate faced
1
times blitzed
0
times sacked
0
times hurried
0
times hit
0%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL vs BUF | 18-169-2 rush, 1-13 rec | 29.2 |
| W2 | BAL vs CLE | 11-23-0 rush | 2.3 |
| W3 | BAL vs DET | 12-50-1 rush, 1-7 rec | 10.7 |
| W4 | BAL vs KC | 8-42-0 rush, 2-16 rec | 7.8 |
| W5 | BAL vs HOU | 15-33-1 rush, 0-0 rec | 9.3 |
| W6 | BAL vs LA | 24-122-0 rush, 1-8 rec | 14.0 |
| W8 | BAL vs CHI | 21-71-2 rush, 0-0 rec | 19.1 |
| W9 | BAL vs MIA | 19-119-0 rush, 1-2 rec | 13.1 |
| W10 | BAL vs MIN | 20-75-0 rush, 3-9 rec | 11.4 |
| W11 | BAL vs CLE | 18-103-1 rush, 2-19 rec | 20.2 |
| W12 | BAL vs NYJ | 21-64-2 rush, 2-24 rec | 22.8 |
| W13 | BAL vs CIN | 10-60-1 rush, 1-44 rec | 17.4 |
| W14 | BAL vs PIT | 25-94-0 rush, 1-8 rec | 11.2 |
| W15 | BAL vs CIN | 11-100-0 rush | 10.0 |
| W16 | BAL vs NE | 18-128-2 rush | 22.8 |
| W17 | BAL vs GB | 36-216-4 rush | 45.6 |
| W18 | BAL vs PIT | 20-126-0 rush, 0-0 rec | 12.6 |