Kyle Pitts Sr.
TEATL · bye 11DNA XNova projection
169season budget (pts)
10.2
PPR / game
56
Nova rank
T6
tier
30.1
VORP
Market
86.4
ADP · 8.02
63-140
draft range
86
expert ECR
63-105
expert range
+33
Nova vs market rank
+33
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
64
floor (P10)
169
median (budget)
277
ceiling (P90)
23%
P(tier-1 season)
42%
P(tier-2 or better)
TE7-TE28
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
X · Extreme boom/bust
volatility 1.202x position norm · 51 games · 9.4 mean PPR
Kyle Pitts Sr. is Nova's 56th-ranked player overall (TE, ATL), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 169 points this season, about 10.2 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 86, well behind Nova's 56, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 23% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 64 points (floor) to 277 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades X (Extreme boom/bust). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 56 | T6 | 30.1 | 23% | TE7-TE28 | 63.5-277.4 |
| Half PPR | 61 | T5 | 21.1 | 22% | TE7-TE28 | 50.8-222 |
| Standard | 69 | T7 | 13.4 | 22% | TE7-TE28 | 38.1-166.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 60 | T8 | 30.1 | 23% | TE7-TE28 | 63.5-277.4 |
Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 761.1 |
| Receptions | 67.4 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.2 |
2025 usage profile17 games
88%
snap share
6.9
targets / game
23%
team target share
22%
air yards share
0.492
WOPR (opportunity)
5.2
receptions / game
75%
catch rate
7.9
yards / target
51.1
air yards / game
13
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+2.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.9
TD pace vs position (5 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
2
drops
3.1%
drop rate
88.7
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 | 52% over | 4.2 | n/a |
| Receiving Yards | 774.5 | 50% over | 761.1 | -1.7% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ATL vs TB | 7-59-0 (8 tgt) | 12.9 |
| W2 | ATL vs MIN | 4-37-0 (5 tgt) | 7.7 |
| W3 | ATL vs CAR | 4-39-0 (6 tgt) | 7.9 |
| W4 | ATL vs WAS | 5-70-1 (5 tgt) | 18.0 |
| W6 | ATL vs BUF | 3-18-0 (4 tgt) | 4.8 |
| W7 | ATL vs SF | 7-62-0 (10 tgt) | 13.2 |
| W8 | ATL vs MIA | 9-59-0 (9 tgt) | 14.9 |
| W9 | ATL vs NE | 4-38-0 (7 tgt) | 7.8 |
| W10 | ATL vs IND | 2-38-0 (5 tgt) | 5.8 |
| W11 | ATL vs CAR | 2-14-0 (3 tgt) | 3.4 |
| W12 | ATL vs NO | 2-25-0 (5 tgt) | 4.5 |
| W13 | ATL vs NYJ | 7-82-0 (8 tgt) | 15.2 |
| W14 | ATL vs SEA | 6-90-0 (10 tgt) | 15.0 |
| W15 | ATL vs TB | 11-166-3 (12 tgt) | 45.6 |
| W16 | ATL vs ARI | 7-57-1 (9 tgt) | 18.7 |
| W17 | ATL vs LA | 2-16-0 (3 tgt) | 3.6 |
| W18 | ATL vs NO | 6-58-0 (9 tgt) | 11.8 |