Mike Evans
WRSF · bye 8DNA BNova projection
164season budget (pts)
12.84
PPR / game
91
Nova rank
T6
tier
2
VORP
Market
50.7
ADP · 5.03
37-70
draft range
54
expert ECR
35-89
expert range
-39
Nova vs market rank
-39
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
63
floor (P10)
164
median (budget)
287
ceiling (P90)
12%
P(tier-1 season)
26%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR24-WR76
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 1.016x position norm · 39 games · 15.58 mean PPR
Mike Evans is Nova's 91st-ranked player overall (WR, SF), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 164 points this season, about 12.84 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 51, ahead of Nova's 91.
Nova gives him about a 12% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 63 points (floor) to 287 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 91 | T6 | 2 | 12% | WR24-WR76 | 62.5-286.9 |
| Half PPR | 84 | T6 | 2.9 | 13% | WR22-WR74 | 52.8-242.1 |
| Standard | 74 | T7 | 7.1 | 14% | WR21-WR71 | 43-197.4 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 99 | T8 | 0 | 12% | WR24-WR76 | 62.5-286.9 |
Nova season stat lines12.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 706.7 |
| Receptions | 51.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 7 |
2025 usage profile8 games
66%
snap share
7.8
targets / game
24%
team target share
35%
air yards share
0.609
WOPR (opportunity)
3.8
receptions / game
48%
catch rate
5.9
yards / target
103
air yards / game
13
red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)
+2.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+1.4
TD pace vs position (3 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
2
drops
3.1%
drop rate
76.5
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 6.5 | 48% over | 7 | +7.7% |
| Receiving Yards | 849.5 | 50% over | 706.7 | -16.8% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | TB vs ATL | 5-51-0 (8 tgt) | 10.1 |
| W2 | TB vs HOU | 5-56-0 (11 tgt) | 10.6 |
| W3 | TB vs NYJ | 4-33-1 (9 tgt) | 13.3 |
| W7 | TB vs DET | 0-0-0 (4 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W15 | TB vs ATL | 6-132-0 (12 tgt) | 19.2 |
| W16 | TB vs CAR | 5-31-1 (9 tgt) | 14.1 |
| W17 | TB vs MIA | 3-31-1 (7 tgt) | 12.1 |
| W18 | TB vs CAR | 2-34-0 (2 tgt) | 5.4 |