A.J. Brown
WRNE · bye 11DNA BNova projection
212season budget (pts)
14.1
PPR / game
33
Nova rank
T6
tier
50.3
VORP
Market
14.5
ADP · 2.02
8-20
draft range
19
expert ECR
9-41
expert range
-18
Nova vs market rank
-18
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
82
floor (P10)
212
median (budget)
360
ceiling (P90)
24%
P(tier-1 season)
42%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR13-WR59
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 1.017x position norm · 45 games · 16.15 mean PPR
A.J. Brown is Nova's 33rd-ranked player overall (WR, NE), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 212 points this season, about 14.1 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 15, ahead of Nova's 33.
Nova gives him about a 24% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 82 points (floor) to 360 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 33 | T6 | 50.3 | 24% | WR13-WR59 | 81.7-359.9 |
| Half PPR | 38 | T5 | 40.2 | 24% | WR13-WR58 | 67.6-298 |
| Standard | 39 | T7 | 33.4 | 25% | WR13-WR57 | 53.6-236 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 43 | T8 | 48.3 | 24% | WR13-WR59 | 81.7-359.9 |
Nova season stat lines15 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1012.3 |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Receiving TDs | 6.3 |
2025 usage profile15 games
91%
snap share
8.1
targets / game
29%
team target share
36%
air yards share
0.678
WOPR (opportunity)
5.2
receptions / game
65%
catch rate
8.3
yards / target
95
air yards / game
36
red-zone opportunities (10 TDs)
+2.9
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+4.1
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
7
broken tackles forced
1
drops
0.5%
drop rate
97.5
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 7.5 | 44% over | 6.3 | -16% |
| Receiving Yards | 1124.5 | 50% over | 1012.3 | -10% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PHI vs DAL | 1-8-0 (1 tgt) | 1.8 |
| W2 | PHI vs KC | 5-27-0 (8 tgt) | 7.7 |
| W3 | PHI vs LA | 6-109-1 (10 tgt) | 22.9 |
| W4 | PHI vs TB | 2-7-0 (9 tgt) | 2.7 |
| W5 | PHI vs DEN | 5-43-0 (8 tgt) | 9.3 |
| W6 | PHI vs NYG | 6-80-0 (9 tgt) | 14.0 |
| W7 | PHI vs MIN | 4-121-2 (6 tgt) | 28.1 |
| W10 | PHI vs GB | 2-13-0 (3 tgt) | 3.3 |
| W11 | PHI vs DET | 7-49-0 (11 tgt) | 11.9 |
| W12 | PHI vs DAL | 8-110-1 (10 tgt) | 25.0 |
| W13 | PHI vs CHI | 10-132-2 (12 tgt) | 35.2 |
| W14 | PHI vs LAC | 6-100-0 (13 tgt) | 16.0 |
| W15 | PHI vs LV | 2-41-1 (2 tgt) | 12.1 |
| W16 | PHI vs WAS | 9-95-0 (12 tgt) | 18.5 |
| W17 | PHI vs BUF | 5-68-0 (7 tgt) | 11.8 |