Joe Burrow
QBCIN · bye 6DNA HNova projection
228season budget (pts)
18.33
PPR / game
147
Nova rank
T6
tier
-28.4
VORP
Market
47.6
ADP · 4.12
25-61
draft range
40
expert ECR
27-62
expert range
-98
Nova vs market rank
-98
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
84
floor (P10)
228
median (budget)
414
ceiling (P90)
14%
P(tier-1 season)
30%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB10-QB36
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
H · High variance
volatility 1.114x position norm · 35 games · 18.7 mean PPR
Joe Burrow is Nova's 147th-ranked player overall (QB, CIN), in Tier 6. Nova projects roughly 228 points this season, about 18.33 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 48, ahead of Nova's 147.
Nova gives him about a 14% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 84 points (floor) to 414 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 147 | T6 | -28.4 | 14% | QB10-QB36 | 83.7-414.1 |
| Half PPR | 153 | T6 | -28.4 | 15% | QB10-QB36 | 83.7-414.1 |
| Standard | 165 | T7 | -28.4 | 15% | QB10-QB36 | 83.7-414.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 74 | T8 | 20.1 | 14% | QB10-QB36 | 83.7-414.1 |
Nova season stat lines12.4 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 115.1 |
| Passing Yards | 3107.4 |
| Passing TDs | 26.3 |
2025 usage profile8 games
88%
snap share
1.8
carries / game
6%
team carry share
2.9
yards / carry
+6
TD pace vs position (17 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
6.8
rush yards before contact / g
0
rush yards after contact / g
55
times pressured
21.3%
pressure rate faced
48
times blitzed
17
times sacked
15
times hurried
23
times hit
5.3%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CIN vs CLE | 113-1-0 pass, 2-3-0 rush | 8.8 |
| W2 | CIN vs JAX | 76-1-0 pass | 7.0 |
| W13 | CIN vs BAL | 261-2-0 pass, 3-8-0 rush | 19.2 |
| W14 | CIN vs BUF | 284-4-2 pass | 23.4 |
| W15 | CIN vs BAL | 225-0-2 pass, 2-5-0 rush | 5.5 |
| W16 | CIN vs MIA | 309-4-0 pass, 2-6-0 rush | 29.0 |
| W17 | CIN vs ARI | 305-2-0 pass, 3-2-0 rush | 20.4 |
| W18 | CIN vs CLE | 236-3-1 pass, 2-17-0 rush | 21.1 |