Jalen Hurts
QBPHI · bye 10DNA BNova projection
313season budget (pts)
19.85
PPR / game
22
Nova rank
T5
tier
62.1
VORP
Market
93.1
ADP · 8.09
63-120
draft range
59
expert ECR
27-79
expert range
+74
Nova vs market rank
+74
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
111
floor (P10)
313
median (budget)
551
ceiling (P90)
31%
P(tier-1 season)
51%
P(tier-2 or better)
QB5-QB25
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.967x position norm · 48 games · 20.27 mean PPR
Jalen Hurts is Nova's 22nd-ranked player overall (QB, PHI), in Tier 5. Nova projects roughly 313 points this season, about 19.85 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 93, well behind Nova's 22, so he tends to return more than his cost.
Nova gives him about a 31% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 111 points (floor) to 551 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 22 | T5 | 62.1 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 111-550.5 |
| Half PPR | 20 | T5 | 62.1 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 111-550.5 |
| Standard | 16 | T6 | 62.1 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 111-550.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 12 | T3 | 110.5 | 31% | QB5-QB25 | 111-550.5 |
Nova season stat lines15.8 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 508.9 |
| Rushing TDs | 10.8 |
| Passing Yards | 3264.4 |
| Passing TDs | 22.5 |
2025 usage profile16 games
98%
snap share
6.6
carries / game
23%
team carry share
4
yards / carry
27
red-zone opportunities (8 TDs)
+4.8
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+11
TD pace vs position (33 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
3
broken tackles forced
21.8
rush yards before contact / g
4.6
rush yards after contact / g
100
times pressured
18%
pressure rate faced
148
times blitzed
32
times sacked
44
times hurried
24
times hit
14.5%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PHI vs DAL | 152-0-0 pass, 14-62-2 rush | 24.3 |
| W2 | PHI vs KC | 101-0-0 pass, 9-15-1 rush | 11.5 |
| W3 | PHI vs LA | 226-3-0 pass, 9-40-1 rush | 29.0 |
| W4 | PHI vs TB | 130-2-0 pass, 9-62-0 rush | 19.4 |
| W5 | PHI vs DEN | 280-2-0 pass, 2-3-0 rush | 19.5 |
| W6 | PHI vs NYG | 283-1-1 pass, 7-13-1 rush | 20.6 |
| W7 | PHI vs MIN | 326-3-0 pass, 4--10-0 rush | 24.0 |
| W8 | PHI vs NYG | 179-4-0 pass, 4-22-0 rush | 25.4 |
| W10 | PHI vs GB | 183-1-0 pass, 5-27-0 rush | 12.0 |
| W11 | PHI vs DET | 135-0-0 pass, 10-31-1 rush | 14.5 |
| W12 | PHI vs DAL | 289-1-0 pass, 7-33-2 rush | 30.9 |
| W13 | PHI vs CHI | 230-2-1 pass, 4-31-0 rush | 16.3 |
| W14 | PHI vs LAC | 240-0-4 pass, 4-8-0 rush | 2.4 |
| W15 | PHI vs LV | 175-3-0 pass, 7-39-0 rush | 22.9 |
| W16 | PHI vs WAS | 185-2-0 pass, 7-40-0 rush | 19.4 |
| W17 | PHI vs BUF | 110-1-0 pass, 3-5-0 rush | 8.9 |