Zay Flowers
WRBAL · bye 13DNA BNova projection
216season budget (pts)
13.17
PPR / game
30
Nova rank
T5
tier
56.6
VORP
Market
26.2
ADP · 3.02
21-31
draft range
35
expert ECR
21-50
expert range
-5
Nova vs market rank
-5
value (ADP - Nova rank)
Outcome range5000 simulated seasons, PPR
82
floor (P10)
216
median (budget)
378
ceiling (P90)
25%
P(tier-1 season)
44%
P(tier-2 or better)
WR12-WR56
likely finish (P25-P75)
Consistency (DNA)
B · Baseline
volatility 0.904x position norm · 50 games · 13.18 mean PPR
Market coverage
-3
divergence vs Vegas · 2 stats · directional
Zay Flowers is Nova's 30th-ranked player overall (WR, BAL), in Tier 5. Nova projects roughly 216 points this season, about 13.17 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 26, Nova 30).
Nova gives him about a 25% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 82 points (floor) to 378 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 30 | T5 | 56.6 | 25% | WR12-WR56 | 81.9-378.4 |
| Half PPR | 32 | T5 | 44.6 | 25% | WR12-WR56 | 67.5-311.6 |
| Standard | 36 | T7 | 35.7 | 25% | WR12-WR55 | 53-244.9 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 37 | T8 | 54.6 | 25% | WR12-WR56 | 81.9-378.4 |
Nova season stat lines16.4 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 1045.9 |
| Receptions | 77.1 |
| Receiving TDs | 4.5 |
| Rushing Yards | 55.7 |
2025 usage profile17 games
87%
snap share
6.9
targets / game
30%
team target share
36%
air yards share
0.701
WOPR (opportunity)
5.1
receptions / game
73%
catch rate
10.3
yards / target
70.8
air yards / game
0.6
carries / game
2%
team carry share
6.2
yards / carry
13
red-zone opportunities (2 TDs)
-0.5
TD equity (under pace, due)
+2.7
TD pace vs position (6 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
9
broken tackles forced
5.4
rush yards before contact / g
2.4
rush yards after contact / g
7
drops
5.8%
drop rate
103.3
passer rating when targeted
Vegas season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 5.5 | 44% over | 4.5 | -18.2% |
| Receiving Yards | 974.5 | 50% over | 1045.9 | +7.3% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL vs BUF | 7-143-1 (9 tgt), 2-8 rush | 28.1 |
| W2 | BAL vs CLE | 7-75-0 (11 tgt), 1-4 rush | 14.9 |
| W3 | BAL vs DET | 2-13-0 (3 tgt) | 3.3 |
| W4 | BAL vs KC | 7-74-0 (8 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W5 | BAL vs HOU | 5-72-0 (5 tgt) | 12.2 |
| W6 | BAL vs LA | 6-46-0 (10 tgt) | 8.6 |
| W8 | BAL vs CHI | 7-63-0 (9 tgt), 1-8 rush | 14.1 |
| W9 | BAL vs MIA | 5-64-0 (5 tgt) | 11.4 |
| W10 | BAL vs MIN | 4-75-0 (6 tgt), 1-6 rush | 12.1 |
| W11 | BAL vs CLE | 3-78-0 (5 tgt), 1-5 rush | 11.3 |
| W12 | BAL vs NYJ | 5-58-0 (6 tgt), 2-11 rush | 11.9 |
| W13 | BAL vs CIN | 2-6-0 (7 tgt) | 0.6 |
| W14 | BAL vs PIT | 8-124-0 (11 tgt), 1-2 rush | 20.6 |
| W15 | BAL vs CIN | 3-68-1 (5 tgt) | 15.8 |
| W16 | BAL vs NE | 7-84-0 (7 tgt), 1-18 rush | 21.2 |
| W17 | BAL vs GB | 4-30-1 (5 tgt) | 13.0 |
| W18 | BAL vs PIT | 4-138-2 (6 tgt) | 29.8 |